CITI: These 10 Technologies Are Completely Changing The World
ROB WILE
Blu Electronic Cigarettes, Citi ResearchIn a massive new research report, analysts at investment bank Citi take a close look at 10 technologies they say will disrupt the way we do business.
They've dipped into practically every sector you can think of: energy, entertainment, IT, manufacturing, and transportation among them.
Some of these technologies have been with us for awhile, but are poised to get better or cheaper.
Others have only recently surfaced, but will be ubiquitous in a matter of years.
This is what they say the future is going to look like.
ROB WILE
Blu Electronic Cigarettes, Citi ResearchIn a massive new research report, analysts at investment bank Citi take a close look at 10 technologies they say will disrupt the way we do business.
They've dipped into practically every sector you can think of: energy, entertainment, IT, manufacturing, and transportation among them.
Some of these technologies have been with us for awhile, but are poised to get better or cheaper.
Others have only recently surfaced, but will be ubiquitous in a matter of years.
This is what they say the future is going to look like.
Disruption 1: 3-D Printing
Citi
Printing parts and materials practically at your desktop. Thanks to falling commodity prices, easier to use software, and more complex design capabilities, the technology is poised to explode. In the future, 50% of parts used in a jet engine could be manufactured by 3D printers.
Source: Citi
The 3-D printing market could nearly double by 2019.
Citi
The 3-D printing market could grow to $6.5 billion by 2019 from less than $3.5 billion today, according to Wohlers Associates. The aerospace, orthopedic, and other high value, low volume industries will be the earliest adopters.
Source: Citi
Disruption 2: E-cigarettes
REUTERS/Christian Hartmann
Battery-powered smokes that are ostensibly less toxic than regular cigarettes. They also currently allow you to smoke in places where regular cigarettes are barred. They come in both disposable and reusable form.
Source: Citi
E-cigarettes will see 50% CAG in coming years.
Citi
So far they're only big in the U.S., though they still comprise a small part of the overall domestic cigarette market. Citi estimates the segment will continue to see near 50% compound annual growth (CAG) over the next few years, depending on regulation and penetration into retail.
Source: Citi
Disruption 3: Genomics And Personalized Medicine
Getty Images/William Thomas Cain
People remain interested in tying their genomic makeup to their potential for carrying certain diseases.
Source: Citi
The genomics market is already exploding.
Citi
Sales could increase to $2.1 billion by 2015, compared with $700 million in 2005. So far, cancer screening, pre-natal testing, and "companion diagnostics" (which are used to determine how safe another type of therapy is), are the three main areas where this tech is getting used. The companies benefiting include manufacturers of gene sequencing machines and reagent kits, the pharma and diagnostic guys who analyze what the machines produce, and end-users: patients and payers.
Source: Citi
Disruption 4: Mobile Payments
Payments that get taken from or get made by tablets or cell phones. Big in Japan (55% penetration), as well as emerging markets where cell phones reign supreme. In developed markets, it's likely to be limited to transit and retail transactions.
Source: Citi
Mobile payments could one day be a trillion dollar market.
Citi
There are currently six billion phone subscriptions globally. On the high end, Canada-based IE Market Research Corporation estimates $1 trillion of transaction value by 2016. Mobile payments will force the four traditional agents involved in transactions — consumer, the merchant, the issuer, and the acquirer — to allow in a bunch of new players.
Source: Citi
Disruption 5: Energy Exploration Technology
Robert Libetti/ Business Insider
Hydraulic fracturing, horizontal drilling, and subsea exploration will expand the world's supply of fossil fuels. We know about fracking, which involves injecting water, sand, and chemicals into the ground to free up shale energy. Horizontal drilling allows oil and gas companies to access previously unobtainable parts of rock formations. In subsea, there are major advances underway that allow drillers to more efficiently separate water and gas from oil.
Source: Citi
The shale revolution has only just begun.
Citi
The U.S. has led the way in shale extraction, but it only possesses 13% of recoverable shale gas worldwide, so there should start to be more rapid global expansion. Subsea processing equipment has the potential to be a $100 billion per annum market by the next decade. Offshore oil and gas production already accounts for 45% of incremental supply.
Source: Citi
Disruption 6: Oil To Gas Switching
Compressed natural gas vehicles are already big in the Middle East. Meanwhile lots of corporates, as well as cities that oversee taxi fleets, are converting their cars from gasoline to CNG.
Source: Citi
CNG vehicles will continue to see robust growth abroad.
Citi
Growth is likely to remain tepid in the U.S. but will continue to expand abroad. Forecasting firm IHS estimates that global CNG are likely to grow from 0.9% of global auto production to 1.1% by 2020.
Source: Citi
Disruption 7: Over The Top Content
Reuters/Stephen Chernin
Streaming entertainment that bypasses traditional networks and distributors. Start-up firms like Roku have sold 5 million boxes allowing consumers to stream web video right to their large, flat panel TV screen, while Netflix, Hulu, Amazon, and Google are making their own films and TV shows.
Source: Citi
Streaming is already nudging out regular old TV.
Citi
TV ratings have declined -1.2% since 2010. Meanwhile, Netflix subscriptions grew nearly 70% during the same period. Fast internet, mobile devices, and the success of the earliest firms in the space have eliminated most barriers for "OTT" content producers to enter the market.
Source: Citi
Disruption 8: The SaaS Opportunity
Citi
Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) is Internet-based software delivery. Basically customers can access software that they'd otherwise have to purchase via downloads or at a store. Examples include Google Apps, Microsoft 365 and Amazon web services.
Source: Citi
Everyone is going to double down on SaaS.
Citi
In 2012, the SaaS market grew 26% to become an $18B market according to market research firm IDC. According to Citi's survey, SaaS has already captured 8% of their software wallets so far and firms expect to increase spending to 70% of their budget over time — a 9-fold increase.
Source: Citi
Disruption 9: Software Defined Networking
AP
Software defined networks simplify IT networks by separating the Control Plane (the intelligence) from the Data Plane (the packet forwarding engine). "Instead of having intelligence distributed across the network in separate boxes, SDN centralizes the Control plane in an overriding software layer which disseminates instructions to each router or switch."
Source: Citi
SDN is too cheap to resist.
Citi
According to IDC, Software Defined Networking is expected to grow from just under $360 million in 2013 to $3.7 billion in 2016. Revenues are likely to be split between startups, traditional network vendors like Cisco, and big IT vendors like IBM, HP, and Dell.
Source: Citi
Disruption 10: Solar
Andreas Rentz/Getty Images
Solar photovoltaics involve exciting electrons within a semiconductor material, thereby creating a current. Solar panels continue to become very cheap very quickly, resulting in cost parity being achieved in certain areas sooner than anyone expected. Solar can even be viewed as a "parasite," stealing demand from previously installed generation.
Source: Citi
Solar power has almost a Moore's-law-esque cost decline rate.
Citi
As solar gets cheaper, it will be possible to use it when there's less sunlight out.
The IEA under their base case are forecasting that solar will receive $1.3 trillion of investment in new capacity between 2012-35, representing 13% of the total global investment in power generation, ahead of gas, and only marginally behind coal. Citi views this as conservative. "Its nature means that the technology keeps getting cheaper, while alternatives gradually become more expensive, and so the ‘problem’ only becomes exacerbated."
Business Insider
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