viernes, 16 de agosto de 2013

Los ricos eluden el impuesto a la renta con inversiones

Cómo realmente hace dinero el 1% 
ROBERT FRANK, CNBC



Gran parte del debate sobre la imposición de los ricos se centra en gravar los sueldos gigantes.
Pero un nuevo estudio del apolítico Tax Policy Center (Centro de Política Tributaria) encontró que el verdadero dinero para los ricos se hace por las inversiones y los ingresos de de negocios, no de las compensaciones.

El documento, de Joseph Rosenberg, toma una definición más amplia de los ingresos. El denominado "Ingresos Efectivo Ampliado" incluye jubilación y de atención de salud, beneficios de ingresos de jubilación, los intereses exentos de impuestos y otros complementos destinados a proporcionar una imagen más precisa de la distribución de los ingresos de la nación.

Los resultados muestran un marcado contraste entre el 1 por ciento y el resto. La población en su conjunto gana 64 por ciento de sus ingresos en efectivo de la definición ampliada de la llamada "compensación", básicamente un cheque de una compañía. Pero el 1 por ciento gana sólo el 39 por ciento de la remuneración. Se pone el 24 por ciento de los ingresos del negocio y el 29 por ciento de las inversiones.

La parte superior 0.1 por ciento es aún más dependiente de las inversiones, con el 35 por ciento de sus ingresos de inversiones.

En otras palabras, cuanto más rico eres, más probable es que usted va a hacer su dinero de inversión o de ser dueño de un negocio.

Como Jared Bernstein, del Center on Budget and Policy Priorities (Centro de Presupuesto y Prioridades Políticas), señala: "Una vez que llegue a la parte superior de la escala de ingresos ... tienes dos tercios de sus ingresos provenientes de fuentes no laborales."

(Leer más: Conoce el nuevo rico: Los acaparadores de efectivo)

Eso no es dar a entender que los ricos sólo están viviendo de ingresos pasivos, o que no están trabajando tan duro como el América todos los días. Los dueños de negocios, de hecho, a menudo trabajan más horas que los empleados a tiempo completo.

"Cuando pensamos en los pequeños empresarios, son personas 24-7 y pueden estar trabajando más duro que tú o yo", dijo Roberton Williams, del Tax Policy Center.  Dijo que hay poca correlación entre el tipo de ingresos la gente recibe y su nivel de trabajo.

(Lea más: Sí, los ricos son diferentes: no se jubilan)

De hecho, el economista Emmanuel Saez de la Universidad de California en Berkeley escribe que desde 1970, el aumento de los ingresos de los ricos son en gran parte debido a un aumento en sus salarios y los ingresos salariales.

"La evidencia sugiere que los principales perceptores de ingresos de hoy no están" rentistas "que derivan sus ingresos de la riqueza pasado, sino más bien el 'trabajo rico."'

Por supuesto, el trabajo también puede significar "ser dueño".

-Por Robert Frank de CNBC. Síguelo en Twitter @ robtfrank

Este artículo fue publicado originalmente por la CNBC.


Business Insider

La composición de la deuda privada estadounidense

This Is What $11.15 Trillion Worth Of Household Debt Looks LikeSAM RO


The New York Fed just published its latest Quarterly Report On Household Debt And Credit.

"In Q2 2013 total household indebtedness fell to $11.15 trillion; 0.7% lower than the previous quarter and 12 percent below the peak of $12.68 trillion in Q3 2008," said the NY Fed in a press release. "Mortgages, the largest component of household debt, fell $91 billion from the first quarter."

"Total auto loan balances increased $20 billion from the previous quarter, the ninth consecutive quarterly increase and the largest quarter over quarter increase since 2006," they added.

Here are some of the highlights via the NY Fed:
  • Outstanding student loan debt increased $8 billion to $994 billion.
  • Credit card balances increased $8 billion to $668 billion.
  • Total mortgage debt decreased to $7.84 trillion from $7.93 trillion.
  • HELOC balances fell $12 billion to $540 billion.
  • Mortgage originations rose to $589 billion, the seventh consecutive quarterly increase.
  • 200,000 individuals had new foreclosure notations added to their credit reports, the first increase since Q1 2012 but still 65 percent below the peak in Q2 2009.

Here's the NY Fed's chart:

 This Is What $11.15 Trillion Worth Of Household Debt Looks Like

Business Insider

McDonalds explota a jóvenes británicos

They won't be lovin' it: McDonald's admits 90% of employees are on zero-hours contracts without guaranteed work or a stable income

Fast-food chain is potentially the largest zero-hours employer in the UK’s private sector



McDonald’s has admitted 90 per cent of its UK employees are on zero-hours contracts.

The admission indicates the fast-food chain is potentially the largest zero-hours employer in the UK’s private sector, with 82,800 contracted staff not guaranteed work or a stable income.

The controversial practice requires employees to be available for work when it is required but, as they are contracted for 0 hours a week, employers are under no obligation to use them or pay them a set wage.

This allows businesses not to pay staff during quiet periods, but ensures they are available to work at short notice when required.

Politicians have reacted to McDonald’s admission by calling for it to offer affected staff a new contract with a minimum hours guarantee.

Speaking to The Guardian newspaper, Labour MP Andy Sawford said: “McDonald's could lead on addressing this issue… There will be some employees working 20 to 30 hours a week, week in week out and it is indefensible not to put those people on contracts”.

A spokeswoman for McDonald’s said all those applying for a job with the company are given the opportunity to state which days they can work, with all zero-hours employees told of their shift patterns well in advance.

The spokeswoman said: “We never ask people to be 'on call'... Many of our employees are parents or students who are looking to fit flexible, paid work around childcare, study and other commitments.”

She added: “The zero-hours contracts which all our hourly-paid employees are on do not affect employee benefit entitlement and all of our employees are entitled to a range of benefits including life assurance, employee discounts and access to a range of training and qualifications.”

McDonald’s employs 92,000 staff in the UK, and has admitted to using zero-hours contracts ever since it entered the UK in 1974.

Rival fast-food chains have also been found to be using zero-hours contracts.

Subway admitted using the controversial practice, but said that its stores were independently owned and employment terms and conditions set by the franchisees.

Sandwich chain Pret a Manger, on the other hand, says it guarantees all employees a minimum of eight hours work a week.
The Independent

Botellas que iluminan a los pobres

Alfredo Moser: Bottle light inventor proud to be poor

By Gibby Zobel
BBC World Service, Uberaba, Brazil



Alfredo Moser's invention is lighting up the world. In 2002, the Brazilian mechanic had a light-bulb moment and came up with a way of illuminating his house during the day without electricity - using nothing more than plastic bottles filled with water and a tiny bit of bleach.

In the last two years his innovation has spread throughout the world. It is expected to be in one million homes by early next year.

So how does it work? Simple refraction of sunlight, explains Moser, as he fills an empty two-litre plastic bottle.

"Add two capfuls of bleach to protect the water so it doesn't turn green [with algae]. The cleaner the bottle, the better," he adds.

Wrapping his face in a cloth he makes a hole in a roof tile with a drill. Then, from the bottom upwards, he pushes the bottle into the newly-made hole.

"You fix the bottle in with polyester resin. Even when it rains, the roof never leaks - not one drop."


The lamps work best with a black cap - a film case can also be used


"An engineer came and measured the light," he says. "It depends on how strong the sun is but it's more or less 40 to 60 watts," he says.


What is refraction?


Refraction is the bending of light, which is caused by a change in its speed
The speed of light is determined by the density of the substance through which it passes
So refraction occurs when light passes from one substance to another with a different density - eg from air to water
In the case of the "Moser lamp", sunlight is bent by the bottle of water and spread around the room

The inspiration for the "Moser lamp" came to him during one of the country's frequent electricity blackouts in 2002. "The only places that had energy were the factories - not people's houses," he says, talking about the city where he lives, Uberaba, in southern Brazil.

Moser and his friends began to wonder how they would raise the alarm, in case of an emergency, such as a small plane coming down, imagining a situation in which they had no matches.

His boss at the time suggested getting a discarded plastic bottle, filling it with water and using it as a lens to focus the sun's rays on dry grass. That way one could start a fire, as a signal to rescuers. This idea stuck in Moser's head - he started playing around, filling up bottles and making circles of refracted light.

Soon he had developed the lamp.

"I didn't make any design drawings," he says.

"It's a divine light. God gave the sun to everyone, and light is for everyone. Whoever wants it saves money. You can't get an electric shock from it, and it doesn't cost a penny."

Moser has installed the bottle lamps in neighbours' houses and the local supermarket.



While he does earn a few dollars installing them, it's obvious from his simple house and his 1974 car that his invention hasn't made him wealthy. What it has given him is a great sense of pride.

How much energy do the lamps save? The plastic bottles are up-cycled in the local community, so no energy is needed to gather, shred, manufacture and ship new bottles
The carbon footprint of the manufacture of one incandescent bulb is 0.45kg CO2
A 50 Watt light bulb running for 14 hours a day for a year has a carbon footprint of nearly 200kg CO2
Moser lamps emit no CO2

Source: UN

"There was one man who installed the lights and within a month he had saved enough to pay for the essential things for his child, who was about to be born. Can you imagine?" he says.

Carmelinda, Moser's wife of 35 years, says her husband has always been very good at making things around the home, including some fine wooden beds and tables.

But she's not the only one who admires his lamp invention. Illac Angelo Diaz, executive director of the MyShelter Foundation in the Philippines, is another.

MyShelter specialises in alternative construction, creating houses using sustainable or recycled materials such as bamboo, tyre and paper.

"We had huge amounts of bottle donations," he says.


Watch: The lamps are changing lives in the Philippines

"So we filled them with mud and created walls, and filled them with water to make windows.
"When we were trying to add more, somebody said: 'Hey, somebody has also done that in Brazil. Alfredo Moser is putting them on roofs.'"

Following the Moser method, MyShelter started making the lamps in June 2011. They now train people to create and install the bottles, in order to earn a small income.

In the Philippines, where a quarter of the population lives below the poverty line, and electricity is unusually expensive, the idea has really taken off, with Moser lamps now fitted in 140,000 homes.

The idea has also caught on in about 15 other countries, from India and Bangladesh, to Tanzania, Argentina and Fiji.



Diaz says you can find Moser lamps in some remote island communities. "They say, 'Well, we just saw it from our neighbour and it looked like a good idea.'"

Light to work in Bangladesh
Most homes and businesses in the slums of Dhaka have no power and no windows, so 80-90% of them hook up to electricity lines illegally - and fall back on candles or kerosene lamps during regular blackouts.

A voluntary organisation called Change began distributing the bottle light, or botul bati, earlier this year. It's helped hundreds of people - including sari makers and rickshaw repairers - whose livelihoods depend on having sufficient light.

There were teething problems. "Some people said they felt poorer after installing a bottle light," says Change founder Sajid Iqbal. The group counters this by stressing that each one helps tackle climate change.

Unlike some other charities, Change charges a small amount for the lights - roughly the price of 2-3kg of rice. "If you give the light for nothing, people don't maintain them," Iqbal says. "They don't understand their value."
People in poor areas are also able to grow food on small hydroponic farms, using the light provided by the bottle lamps, he says.
Overall, Diaz estimates, one million people will have benefited from the lamps by the start of next year.
"Alfredo Moser has changed the lives of a tremendous number of people, I think forever," he says.
"Whether or not he gets the Nobel Prize, we want him to know that there are a great number of people who admire what he is doing."
Did Moser himself imagine that his invention would have such an impact?
"I'd have never imagined it, No," says Moser, shaking with emotion.
"It gives you goose-bumps to think about it."

jueves, 15 de agosto de 2013

Falla el matching universitario por expectativas erróneas

¿Por qué tantos estudiantes terminan en la universidad equivocada?
Max Nisen
Business Insider


Los estudiantes terminan en una universidad que no coincide con su habilidad con mucha más frecuencia de lo que parece.

Un estudio reciente halla que los niveles significativos de ambos subvaloran  - donde los estudiantes de altos potenciales terminan asistiendo a escuelas de baja calidad - y sobrevaloran donde los estudiantes menos capaces van a instituciones de alta calidad.

En "casi todos los casos," la falta de coincidencia no proviene de la parte de admisión, sino a partir de las opciones que los estudiantes y sus padres hacen.

Estudiantes menos pudientes no están informados acerca de sus opciones y el arco de limitaciones financieras, y con mayor frecuencia terminan en subvalorados y en las universidades de menor calidad. Estudiantes mejor informados y más ricos, junto con los que van a mejores escuelas secundarias terminan en las escuelas de mayor calidad y no terminan subvalorados (undermatch), pero es mucho más probable que estén sobrevalorados (over-match). Ellos parecen pensar que los beneficios de las escuelas de mejor calidad son mayores que los costos potenciales de reprobar o hacer bajo rendimiento.

Sus padres los animan. Estudiantes con padres con mayor educación tienen más probabilidades de ser mayor que la concordancia (overmatch).

La combinación de información y asesoramiento de los padres, consejeros, y otros sistemas de apoyo en la elección de dónde parece ser mayor que las diferencias potenciales en el lado de los ingresos, que algunos estudiantes reciben ayuda para escribir ensayos, preparación de exámenes, etc.

Entre los estudiantes de menor concordancia, el 69% ni siquiera aplica a una escuela de alta calidad que son muy adecuadas para ellos. El apoyo a la conclusión de que no es un problema de admisión, y abrumadoramente sobre las opciones de familia y personal, sólo el 8% se aplica a una escuela de partido, pero no entrar

Cuando se trata de overmatch, sólo el 4% de los estudiantes se aplican entonces no entrar en una universidad bien concordada.

Los desajustes se definen como la diferencia entre el lugar de un estudiante en el espectro de posibilidades, basándose en las pruebas, y el percentil de su escuela en un índice de calidad.

Es una pérdida económica en ambos lados. Estudiantes brillantes no están en los lugares donde es más probable que alcancen su máximo potencial, y los puntos en las principales instituciones están llenas de estudiantes que tienen menos capacidad y reciben menos de él, pero resultan ser estimulado en esa dirección durante su aplicación proceso.

Se trata de recursos e información. Investigaciones anteriores muestran que los estudiantes muy brillantes pero menos ricos rara vez aplican a las mejores escuelas, a pesar de que terminan siendo más barato que muchas opciones de menor calidad. Es demasiado probable, de hecho, terminar en dos años y las instituciones con fines de lucro, o que están en la parte inferior de la escala de calidad. No están informados acerca de sus opciones, la posibilidad de ayuda económica, o que tienen mejores opciones.

Lo único que mitiga estos efectos está teniendo una escuela pública bien avenido cerca. Así que un sistema de Estado fuerte con múltiples niveles de las instituciones de ayuda. Como la financiación cada vez se corta, falta de coincidencia se vuelve más probable.

Donde invierten sus fortunas las familias billetonas

Here's Where The World's Richest Families Put Their Fortunes
STEVEN PERLBERG



REUTERS/Toby MelvilleToday's new money millionaire is no stodgy railroad tycoon.

Bolstered by continued success in tech, the number of millionaires in North America jumped 11% to 3.73 million, making it the region with the fastest growth, according to Bloomberg Markets Magazine.

The question is, then, where is all that money kept?

Bloomberg Markets ranked the top firms that manage money for the hyper wealthy. Many of the top multifamily offices are associated with banks (and often try to appear smaller for the sake of mystique). Some firms are independently operated.

Right now there is plenty of new client potential all over the globe as assets held by the rich grew to $46.2 trillion last year thanks to success among the $30 million plus crowd. Firms are looking for new money from Latin American clients in particular.

HSBC came in atop the list, with 340 families and $137.3 billion in assets. Northern Trust (3,457 families, $112 billion) and Bessemer Trust (2,200 families, $77.9 billion) took home the silver and bronze, respectively.

Check out the top 28 below.

Thanks to Bloomberg Markets Magazine for giving us permission to run their list.



Business Insider

La recesión afecta a la crianza

Como la última recesión económica ha cambiado la paternidad
DENISE CHOW, LiveScience


Durante la reciente recesión, el aumento de la inestabilidad económica puede haber causado a las madres estadounidenses - en particular los que tienen una variación genética que las hace más sensibles a los cambios en su entorno - a participar en prácticas de crianza severas, según un nuevo estudio.
Los investigadores encontraron que las fluctuaciones en los niveles de desempleo y la confianza de los consumidores en las ciudades estadounidenses se asociaron con un aumento en las formas graves de la paternidad, incluidos gritos o golpes a los niños.

"Comúnmente se piensa que las dificultades económicas en las familias llevan al estrés, lo que, a su vez, conduce a un deterioro de la calidad de crianza de los hijos", dijo el autor principal del estudio Dohoon Lee, profesor asistente de sociología en la Universidad de Nueva York, en un comunicado. "Pero estos resultados muestran que una recesión económica en la comunidad en general puede afectar negativamente a los padres - con independencia de las condiciones particulares que enfrenten las familias." [10 consejos científicos para criar a niños felices]

Los investigadores encontraron que las madres se vieron afectados no sólo por las altas tasas de desempleo, sino también por la incertidumbre de la evolución de las tasas de desempleo, junto con la vacilante confianza de los consumidores durante la recesión.

"Pensamos que veríamos que a medida que el desempleo aumenta, vemos a los padres más duras", dijo el coautor del estudio Sara McLanahan, profesor de sociología y asuntos públicos en la Universidad de Princeton. "Pero vimos crianza dura a principios de la recesión, justo en el momento en el mercado de valores se estrellaba, y luego declinó. Eso fue un rompecabezas, y fue entonces cuando surgió la idea de ver la tasa de cambio en la economía , no sólo el desempleo ".

¿En los genes?

El estudio también identificó una posible base genética para los cambios de crianza. La crisis económica está vinculada a padres duros sólo en las madres con una variación en un gen llamado DRD2 Taq1A, que controla la producción de dopamina, una sustancia química de regulación del comportamiento en el cerebro.

La dopamina se refiere a veces como el químico de la "buena sensación" en el cerebro, pero el neurotransmisor también se cree que regulan la tensión y la agresión, dijo McLanahan. Los investigadores notaron una tendencia entre las madres con esta variante genética específica, que compone la mitad de las madres estudiadas.

"Las madres que no tenían esta variación genética no reaccionan de la misma manera", McLanahan a LiveScience. Los resultados también mostraron que las madres con la variante del gen tendían a ser menos duras cuando la economía iba bien, lo que indica que tienen una mayor sensibilidad a los cambios en su entorno.

Los investigadores utilizaron datos de las Familias Frágiles y en curso de estudio Bienestar Infantil, que sigue cerca de 5.000 niños nacidos en 20 ciudades de Estados Unidos entre 1998 y 2000, y está siendo dirigido por científicos de la Universidad de Princeton y la Universidad de Columbia.

Siguiendo a las familias

En el estudio Familias Frágiles, las madres fueron entrevistados poco después de dar a luz, y de nuevo cuando sus hijos fueron de aproximadamente 1, 3, 5 y 9 años de edad. Muestra de ADN de la saliva también se obtuvieron de 2.600 madres y niños en el noveno año del estudio.

La crianza dura midió en una escala de uso común en la psicología, que identifica cinco tipos de violencia psicológica crianza dura, como gritos o amenazas, y cinco tipos de castigos corporales, como azotes o bofetadas.

En su análisis, los investigadores controlaron una serie de variables que pueden afectar la crianza de los hijos, incluyendo madres edad, raza y nivel de educación, así como el género y la edad del niño.

La nueva investigación sugiere que los cambios en el medio ambiente, tales como la incertidumbre económica generalizada, puede afectar a personas de manera diferente, en función de su composición genética.

Los resultados detallados del estudio fueron publicados en línea el día de hoy (05 de agosto) en la revista Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

Business Insider

miércoles, 14 de agosto de 2013

Alcohol y café con moderación permitidos en el embarazo, dice economista madre

Libro de un economista va a explotar los mitos sobre el embarazo, empezando por beber alcohol y café
Max Nisen


Muchas de las reglas y prohibiciones que rodean el embarazo han sido escuchados por las mujeres docenas de veces antes de siquiera escucharlas de su médico por primera vez.
Un nuevo libro de la economista Emily Oster de la Universidad de Chicago encuentra que muchos de ellos no se basan en las estadísticas o la realidad, al igual que la prohibición de la cafeína y el alcohol.

Oster amó el café y el vino, y tenía curiosidad si podía beberlos durante el embarazo, pero no obtuvo vagas, sin apoyo y asesoramiento en ocasiones contradictorios de sus médicos. Uno o dos vasos de vino eran "probablemente muy bien", y el café era que hay que evitar, o que se le mantenga bajo 2 tazas al día.

En un artículo en The Wall Street Journal, Oster describe lo que sucedió cuando tomó el aspecto de un economista serio en los estudios médicos han estado citando para justificar la prohibición general durante años, y se aplica la teoría de la decisión de su propio embarazo.

¿Las conclusiones? "Beber como un adulto europeo, no como un hermano de la fraternidad", y no tenga miedo de una taza, o incluso varias tazas de café.


  • Beber en exceso es, obviamente, un problema, pero Oster encontró que no había "evidencia creíble" de que tener un vaso de vino al día durante el segundo y tercer trimestre del embarazo tendría un impacto cognitivo de un niño, y un estudio reciente la respalda. Hay poca o ninguna evidencia de que el beber ligeramente tenga un efecto negativo en el comportamiento o en el IQ tampoco.
  • En uno de los estudios más citados para encontrar una conexión entre el beber ligeramente y problemas de conducta, el 45% de las mujeres que reportaron haber tenido una bebida al día reportó el uso de cocaína durante el embarazo, frente al 18% que se abstuvo por completo.
  • Los investigadores han afirmado que el café puede causar abortos involuntarios o impedir el desarrollo. El café es áspero en el estómago y provoca náuseas para muchos en las primeras etapas del embarazo. La náusea es un signo de un embarazo saludable, y aquellos capaces de beber café temprano y en abundancia puede tener otros problemas.
  • Los estudios que dan cuenta de las náuseas encuentran pequeño problema con el consumo moderado de café. Un muy citado estudio encontró mayores tasas de aborto espontáneo para más pesadas consumidores de café, pero no encontró ningún efecto para las mujeres que redujeron el consumo durante el embarazo. El factor náuseas parece la explicación más probable para ese comportamiento.

El denominador común es que los estudios desacoplan la correlación de la causalidad.

Oster encontró pruebas suficientes de que ella personalmente se sentía cómodo con un vaso de vino de vez en cuando, y continuar beber tres o cuatro tazas de café al día cuando se sentía a la altura. Su hija de 2 años de edad, está perfectamente sana.

En el libro, que también se ocupa de los consejos mujeres reciben por su peso (preocuparse más por ganar muy poco que demasiado), la actividad física, y lo que comen (sushi está bien, queso de leche cruda no es).

Las mujeres son enormemente invertido en tener un embarazo saludable y un niño, por lo que a menudo tienden a errar por el lado de la seguridad. Una gran cantidad de consejos actual parece hacerlos innecesariamente triste, incierto, o culpable, y no es de mucha ayuda en la toma de una, la decisión correcta informado.

El libro, "Expecting Better: Why the Conventional Pregnancy Wisdom Is Wrong-and What You Really Need to Know,se dará a conocer el 20 de agosto.
Business Insider

¿La Eurozona salió de la recesión?

ANALYST: The Eurozone Recession Is Over



Business Insider


Back in late July we declared that the European recession was coming to an end.
It was clear from manufacturing data, as well as bank lending data that the corner had turned or would soon turn, and that although things would remain a holy mess, things would no longer get worse economically and that there would be a modicum of growth.
Since then, this view has grown in popularity.
In a note out last night, SocGen economic Brian Hilliard says this is the week we find that out for sure.
IS THE EURO AREA FINALLY EMERGING FROM RECESSION?
In recent weeks, a number of better than expected economic data have lifted the mood for the euro area growth outlook. This week we expect preliminary Q2 GDP data for France, Germany and the euro area to indeed point to a small improvement in growth, the first in nearly two years and better than we expected in our latest Global Economic Outlook in June.
While this may provide some welcome relief, we think it is too early to call an end to the euro area debt crisis. Firstly, looking more closely at the driving factors in Q2, we expect temporary factors to have been at play in both Germany and France. In Germany, the rebound from poor weather conditions in Q1 exaggerates the likely strength of growth in Q2 (we predict 0.7% qoq – euro area economist, Anatoli Annenkov, analyses this in A roaring rebound in German Q2 GDP expected) while for France, even with the help of strong energy consumption (unlikely to help in Q3) and net trade growth, only 0.2% qoq is likely.
Bear in mind, though, that this will signal the exit from recession. Diverging trends are still apparent, with strong German data contrasting with still lack-lustre data elsewhere. Secondly, we expect headwinds from financial fragmentation and additional fiscal austerity to weigh on growth in H2, with risks stemming from policy uncertainty remaining high. Progress with the Banking Union and the financial sector regulatory framework will in this regard be crucial.
Anytime anyone makes this call, people feel the need (understandably) to point out all of the looming pitfals for the Euro, including the ongoing austerity, the political uncertainty, and as SocGen does, the issues with the banking union. People point this out in part because it's true, but also because they don't want to seem glib about how bad things are in the real world there.
That being said, turns start somewhere, and if you wait until things are good until you start talking about them, then you miss the boat.

Una discusión sobre la redistribución del ingreso en USA

Redistributing Wealth Is the Wrong Way to Fix a Rigged Game

Elites shouldn't be forced to share ill-gotten gains -- they should be prevented from ever getting them.





Quinn Anya/Flickr

In my review of Twilight of the Elites, Chris Hayes's thoughtful critique of American meritocracy, I largely agreed with his contention that the current system is frequently rigged by those at the top.
How should that be fixed? I'd prefer a polity constantly attuned to abuses of power and committed to tweaking the rules of the game in a constant effort to make them as neutral, fair, and equitable as possible. With apologies for the violence a one-sentence summary necessarily does to a subtle, book-length argument, Hayes emphasized the need for affirmative action and redistribution of wealth. Discouraged about the prospects of remedying unfairness, he wanted to address its consequences, causing me to worry that alleviating the symptoms would make the disease easier to ignore.
As I put it at the time:
If rich Americans are gaming the system to illegitimately increase their wealth, if they are pulling up the ladder so that they can never be replaced as elites, if they are too socially distant from the people over whose lives they wield great influence, and if they aren't even punished like regular people when they break the rules, surely there are urgent policy changes needed that are a lot more targeted to reforming the elite than 'raise their taxes and spread the wealth.'
Better to eliminate ill-gotten gains than to redistribute them.
To be clear, there is a lot about which Hayes and I can and do agree. I favor enough redistribution to fund a safety net for the least well-off, and he favors eliminating ill-gotten gains. Where do we disagree? He is more comfortable than I am with redistribution of wealth to the non-poor; more confident that a more redistributive government would advance the common good, rather than ending in abuse; and less confident that direct remedies of injustice would succeed.
Our varying approaches were brought to mind by an exchange betweenJonathan Chait, a redistributionist, and Will Wilkinson, a proponent of focusing on ill-gotten gains.
Both are exceptional writers and forceful proponents of their very different perspectives. I recommend reading their full posts, as the discussion that follows won't capture everything about them. Chait writes:
... You could eliminate every business subsidy in Washington, and you'd still have in place a massive income gulf and a wealthy elite able to pass its advantages on to the next generation (through proximity to jobs, social connections, acculturation, spending money on education) that have nothing to do with government. The egalitarian laissez-faire economy is a fantasy ...

Republican populists are obsessed with the role of elites using the government to reinforce their privilege. Certainly examples of this exist. But the main driver of inequality today is the marketplace, and the main bulwark against that inequality is the federal government. The federal government disproportionately taxes the rich, and it disproportionately spends on the poor.
Wilkinson responds:
Mr Chait has set up a false alternative. To say that the "main driver of inequality today is the marketplace" is a fairly empty observation. The marketplace is a complex system of institutions itself created by legal rules, and these rules are mostly established by government.
The law constitutes and codifies the corporate form.
The law defines the scope of property rights, including intellectual property rights. These political artifacts specify the contours of the marketplace and have vast, systemic distributive consequences. These facts are usually trotted out to correct free-market enthusiasts in the grip of the fallacious idea that "the market" somehow exists outside politics, and that the pattern of income and wealth emerging from the operation of market exchange is therefore "natural" and not already thoroughly political. I'm sure Mr Chait has made these points himself, so it should be be easy for him to see that to say that the marketplace drives inequality is just to say that government does, because the marketplace is a creature of politics.
I don't expect that people like Chait and people like Wilkinson are ever going to resolve all their disagreements. But what most struck me in the above exchange was Chait's dismissal of non-redistributive attempts to improve outcomes. Wilkinson goes on to write, "I deny that rooting out all corporate welfare would do so little and that progressive transfers would do so much," adding later that "egalitarian anti-corporatism is a genuinely excellent, genuinely egalitarian idea."
I'd like to broaden the discussion a bit more.
Say we want "a really solid scheme of social insurance," since everyone mentioned, myself included, favors it; and set aside the argument about the wisdom of progressive redistribution on top of that. There are numerous, significant injustices and suboptimal policies that could be remedied, in part or in full, through means other than additional progressive redistribution. And those remedies would make life in America significantly better for the poor, the working class, and the lower middle class, largely at the expense of rent-seekers and incumbents enjoying unfair gains.
Some of the remedies fit more comfortably than others into what's recently been called "libertarian populism." What every suggestion has in common is addressing unfair gains that accrue to elites, who have arranged or manipulated the rules of the game in order to inflate their status. 
The financial sector: As Kevin Drum once put it, "The mammoth profits of the financial industry are bad for the economy because they suck money away from other activities with actual value. They're doubly bad because they were built on, and encouraged, vast amounts of fraud and corruption."
As well, financial-industry profits are increasingly disconnected from the success of the economy. And if there was ever any doubt that Wall Street banks have grown too big to regulate, in part through the implicit subsidy they receive as so-called "too big to fail" institutions, it vanished during the recent cycle of financial crisis and bailouts (both acknowledged and hidden). The rules of the game are broken, and the amount of lobbying done by the big banks, the revolving door between the public and private sector, and the serial failure of the state to prosecute wrongdoing are further signs that successful reform will requirebreaking up the big banks.

Housing policy: Tax law ought to treat renters and owners equitably, rather than permitting mortgage interest but not rent to be deducted. In high-rent cities, permitting more construction at a lower cost would be a huge boon to most renters. Matt Yglesias has made this point over and over again with respect to the building-height limit in Washington, D.C. In suburbs, there is a much higher demand among working-class families for apartments than there is supply, because incumbent homeowners, fearing crime and traffic, almost never want multifamily units built near their neighborhoods. Eliminating all zoning laws isn't the right fit for every community, but moderate free-market reforms that reduce incumbent veto power would benefit poor and working class households.
Corporate welfare: The Export-Import Bankethanol subsidiessugar subsidies, the part of the Pentagon budget that is protecting the interests of American-run multinationals more than taxpayers: End it all, along with the countless other examples of corporate welfare coursing through our system. There is so much of it that one could go on for pages about this problem alone.
Teacher incentives: One of several factors that prevents public education from performing as well as it might is a system of incentives for teachers, defended by powerful teachers' unions, that makes it (a) very difficult to fire the worst teachers and (b) very difficult to incentivize better teaching with pay, because so much of compensation is based upon seniority (along with masters degrees in education that don't seem to do much to improve teacher quality).Merit based pay need not be tied to test scores. In fact, I'd much prefer a system that empowered principals to reward the best teachers in their schools from a larger total pool of salary money.
The payroll tax: As Tim Carney puts it, "It's a tax on employment. It's a tax on someone's first dollar. And it's specious to say that it funds Social Security and Medicare -- both entitlements are funded on the margin by general revenues. So give up the charade and abolish a regressive federal tax."
Occupational licensing: One nonprofit that gets less attention than it deserves is the Institute for Justice, a public-interest law firm that fights on behalf of the rights of small food-truck entrepreneurs to compete against established restaurants, monks to sell simple wooden caskets without jumping through hoops favored by the funeral industry, eyebrow threaders to service clients without attending expensive beauty schools that don't even teach the technique, and interior designers to practice their art without obtaining permission from a professional cartel. Throughout the economy, entrenched interests and politicians with college degrees are passing laws that have the effect of disadvantaging would be entrepreneurs who lack the start-up capital of wealthier analogs, or else have more trouble navigating the bureaucracy, whether because they are immigrants with a language barrier or unable to afford attorneys or consultants.
The tax code: The complexity of the current system effectively rewards tax attorneys, accountants, and the people rich enough to pay the best of them, at a huge deadweight cost to the economy.
The patent system: There is reason to believe that it is doing as much to stifle innovation as to encourage it. Additionally, as Tim Lee writes, "a 'property' system that makes it impossible to figure out who owns what is economically inefficient, and should be reformed for that reason alone. But a property system that exposes anyone who enters a particular industry to unavoidable and potentially crippling legal liability should also offend our sense of justice. People should have a reasonable shot at following the law, and at a minimum the penalties for failing to do the impossible shouldn't be too harsh. A legal regime that's practically impossible to comply with, and which imposes potentially crippling liability on infringers, is incompatible with the rule of law."
Drug policy and the criminal-justice system: Take a poor kid from a rough neighborhood and a rich kid from a wealthy suburb. Each is pulled over with an eighth of marijuana in their car. What's likely to happen to them next, on average, illustrates one of the most profound inequalities in how rich and poor people are treated in the criminal-justice system, and that the effects touch everything from incarceration rates to job prospects to the likelihood of having an absent father. It seems to me that, along with all its other unintended consequences, drug prohibition and the black market it spawns imposes far higher costs on the worst off Americans -- and higher costs still on even poorer people who live in countries with cartels empowered by black markets. 
(There is, as well, something deeply pernicious about a private prison industry and public-employee unions composed of prison guards who lobby for policies that would incarcerate more people.)
Foreign policy: Working-class Americans, who disproportionately serve in the military, would benefit from fewer wars of choice, like the conflict in Iraq, that kill thousands of them, maim tens of thousands, and damage many others with terrible consequences ranging from PTSD to suicide. But there are powerful lobbies that will benefit financially from more wars of choice, and that benefit in any case from often wasteful spending on various weapons systems of choice. At the very least, defense contractors that perpetrate fraud ought to be pursued mercilessly.
* * *
That isn't an exhaustive account of policy areas where there is room to significantly improve fairness and outcomes for non-elites. But it is enough to show that tremendous good could be done for regular Americans even if you take redistribution beyond the safety net off the table. Why do I prefer to focus on those sorts of efforts, as opposed to open-ended progressive redistribution? 
Several reasons.
For one, Americans should have strong, though not absolute, claims on what they earn -- not absolute, because everyone has an obligation to fund certain common enterprises (common defense and a safety net among them). But I'd much rather use public policy to redistribute ill-gotten wealth away from rich rent-seekers who make their money gaming the system at everyone's expense than by taking earned wealth from people who accrued it by creating value for others.
Progressives seem to have no aversion to redistributing, without any principled limit, even the most legitimately earned wealth. If that characterization is correct, why? If not, what is the principled limit?
I also think activist government and redistribution are extremely vulnerable to rent-seeking elites -- more vulnerable, in fact, than a system that focused on establishing fair general rules. Libertarian populists accuse President Obama of crony capitalism when they tout their remedies. To me, the response that Chait offers is extremely unconvincing, but not for the reason he might think. 
Here's the part of his piece I'm talking about:
The most important premise of Republican populism is the belief, accepted as self-evidently true after four and a half years of relentless repetition, that Obama's governing style is corrupt, or at least close to corrupt. Obama's agenda, writes Carney, amounts to "taxpayer transfers to the big companies with the best lobbyists, with some crumbs hopefully falling to the working class."
Douthat calls it "cronyist liberalism."
But this is almost completely wrong. There's a speck of truth here: Obama has fallen short of the soaring idealistic vision of governance campaigned on in 2008 -- negotiations conducted on-camera, lobbyists treated in his administration like lepers -- but he's still easily surpassed the normal presidential standard of good governance. The Bush administration devolved into a massive K Street patronage operation; Reagan's administration featured five distinct genres of corruption scandal (sixteen Reagan HUD staffers were convicted of bid-rigging, high-level staffers Michael Deaver and Lyn Nofziger were convicted of illegal influence peddling, Reagan's EPA was a sewer, etc.).
Chait would have us believe that the Obama Administration hasn't had a whiff of cronyism, especially compared to the rampant cronyism of Republican presidents. Wilkinson says this gives Obama too much credit, and I agree, but why contest Chait's point? Assume Obama is as good as Chait says. Guess what? He leaves office in 2017, when another person will enter the White House. Whether then or soon after, a Republican will enter the White House. He or she can inherit a system where redistribution is discouraged and the focus is on establishing fair "rules of the game," or one where the president has tremendous discretion to redistribute wealth. 
The system more generally prone to corruption is obvious. Even by Chait's logic -- Obama is unusually honest, and GOP presidencies devolve into patronage operations -- we're likely to see more patronage than honesty in the near future, when the machinery of redistribution so carefully built by Democrats falls into the ideological descendants of the people who executed the K Street Project. By Chait's own logic, his preferred system will only work when Democrats are in power.
The actual nature of our two-party system, where Republicans and Democrats both regularly end up in charge, is that some unfair elite gains accrue to Republican interest groups and others to Democratic interest groups. (Some groups have bought off both parties.) If it were true that only redistribution can improve the lot of regular Americans, it would make sense for Democrats to ignore the illegitimate gains won by the people who help to keep their party in power.
But it isn't true. Regular Americans would be a lot better off if the worst rent-seeking were reined in, including rent-seeking by Democratic interest groups. As a matter of public policy, there are a lot of reforms that two smart guys like Wilkinson and Chait could agree on as discrete improvements. The obstacle is the contours of coalition politics in America even more than substance. Luckily, some people are trying to change the contours of coalition politics in America.
They should be encouraged.

The Atlantic