viernes, 10 de mayo de 2013

La recuperación se ve en Alemania como en ningún otro lado


A Faster Recovery in Germany Than Elsewhere

Armin Smailovic for the International Herald Tribune
Young German workers in a work-study training program at Schabmueller Autotechnik, which makes components for auto manufacturers in Ingolstadt.


THE recovery from the Great Recession has been slow, or even nonexistent, in most of the developed world.


But not in Germany.
In Germany, alone among the 27 members of the European Union, unemployment rates for both older and younger workers are now lower than they were when the United States slipped into a recession at the end of 2007.
In the rest of the euro zone, the unemployment rate for workers ages 25 to 74 has more than doubled over that period, to 12.8 percent. The rate for younger workers is more than 30 percent, on average — and above 50 percent in Spain and Greece. In Germany, it is less than 8 percent.
The accompanying charts show how unemployment rates for both groups of workers have changed in each of the 17 countries in the euro zone, as well as for Britain and the United States.
In terms of adult unemployment rates, the most recent figures for the United States (6.1 percent) and Britain (5.7 percent) are not that far from Germany’s figure of 5.1 percent. The major difference is in youth unemployment, which is above 16 percent in the United States and above 20 percent in Britain.
What accounts for that difference? Some of the credit goes to Germany’s unusual education and employment system for young workers, as well as to German policies that encourage employers facing downturns to reduce working hours rather than fire workers. In Germany, students are separated into different career tracks, with many put into a system that leads to apprenticeships rather than to college degrees.
But that is not the entire story. The euro zone’s troubles have helped Germany’s export-oriented economy. The weak euro has made Germany’s exports more competitive against those of countries with which it competes, most notably the United States and Japan. Since the end of 2007, the euro is down about 10 percent against the dollar and about 20 percent against the yen.
Were the euro zone to break up, there is little question that the value of a new German mark would rise sharply, while the currencies of many other members of the zone would fall relative both to the mark and other international currencies. That would depress German exports.
The charts reflecting Germany’s unemployment rates, if they were the only evidence available on world economic trends, would seem to indicate there was a mild downturn in 2009 that soon ended, with the economy recovering the next year. The United States charts would indicate a more severe downturn, followed by a recovery that began in 2010 and may now be gathering strength. In Britain, there has been much less progress since unemployment peaked in 2011.
In the 16 other euro zone countries as a group, the chart indicates a deep recession that leveled off in 2010 and 2011 but has since gotten much worse — particularly for young workers. “We will have to speed up in fighting youth unemployment,” the German finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, said at a conference this week, “because otherwise we will lose the support, in a democratic way, in some populations of the European Union.”
If that is to happen, it may require a change of course for Europe, where it appears the rich will continue to get richer. The European Commission’s latest economic forecast, released last week, predicted declining unemployment in Germany this year and next, but said joblessness was likely to continue to climb in France, Italy and Spain.
Floyd Norris comments on finance and the economy at nytimes.com/economix.


Germany Stands Alone

Unemployment in Germany is now lower than it was before the financial crisis began — something that is not true of the United States or any other country in the European Union. Germany’s unemployment rate for adults is not far below the similar rates in the United States and Britain, but youth unemployment rates are far higher in those countries. The charts show how unemployment rates have changed from December 2007, when the United States recession began, through the most recent data available.Related Article »
30
20
10
%
0
60
50
40
30
20
10
%
0
25- to 74-year-olds
25- to 74-year-olds
16- to 24-year-olds
16- to 24-year-olds
MAR. ’13
DEC. ’07
MAR. ’13
DEC. ’07
JAN. ’13
DEC. ’07
APR. ’13
EURO ZONE,
EXCLUDING
GERMANY
GERMANY
BRITAIN
UNITED STATES
MARCH ’13
or most recent available*
DEC. ’07
MARCH ’13
or most recent available*
DEC. ’07
DEC. ’07
%
0
5
10
15
20
25
%
%
6.1
16.1
5.7
20.7
12.8
31.1
5.1
7.6
Unemployment rate
Unemployment rate
Euro area
Germany
Austria
Netherlands
Malta
Luxembourg
Finland
Estonia
Belgium
Slovenia
France
Ireland
Cyprus
Slovakia
Italy
Portugal
Spain
Greece




Top 10 en departamentos de Economía en Latinoamérica


University Rankings – Top Economics Departments in Latin America

written by Lucía Leguízamo

The application deadline for the winter semester in many Latin American universities is approaching.  To help those considering further education or work in this region we are sharing a list of top Economics Departments in Latin America. If you are interested in universities in other regions, check out our previous posts on the Top 10 Economics Departments in Europe and Top 10 Economics Institutions in Asia. The following list is based on the QS Latin American University Rankings for Economics and Econometrics.
As it was pointed in our earlier posts about Rankings of Economics Departments, unfortunately there is a lack of comprehensive rankings systems for specific disciplines, and specially so for specific geographic regions. In this case, the QS Latin American University Rankings is based on two types of surveys and a set of indicators. The first survey is to measure the academic reputation of the university; therefore it is carried out among the academics in charge of evaluating universities according to their research results. A second survey is aimed at employers who evaluate the quality of graduates, thus a business reputation can be evaluated. Additionally different indicators are taken into account, such as the number of studies and publications, the ratio between the number of students and teachers, and the number of doctorates.
250 institutions in the region were evaluated. As a result, Chilean and Brazilian universities dominate the top of the list. Mexico and Colombia are the next on the list of recognized economics departments in Latin America.
                              QS LATIN AMERICAN UNIVERSITY RANKINGS
    No
  Institution
    Country
  Score
     1
  Chile
  99.98
     2
  Brazil
  97.55
     3
  Chile
  93.73
     4
  Mexico
  92.83
     5
  Colombia
  90.37
     6
  Mexico
  85.81
     7
  Brazil
  76.5

As an complementary option, RePEC shows in the Top 25%  Economic Departments, a list of the best economics faculties around the world. The Faculty of Economics and Business of the University of Chile represent the Latin American region. However, due to the number of institutions that are registered, the list is not fully complete.
When looking for the best University or academic program, it is always recommended to make use of additional criteria. Different rankings correlate different factors such as academic reputation, number of doctorates and the number of publications, giving more weight to some than others. Additionally, many rankings systems offer the option to customize search results, meeting the needs of each candidate. If you use any other Economics Departments rankings for Latin American Universities, please feel free to share it with others in the comments.

Japón deprecia y crece



Pro-Inflation Policies Show Signs of Helping Japanese Economy

Yoshikazu Tsuno/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
Containers are unloaded at a cargo terminal in Tokyo last month. The Bank of Japan has moved aggressively to reinvigorate the economy and fight deflation.


TOKYO — For almost two decades, Japan’s economic fortunes have deteriorated, and little seemed to be done about it.


But in the last few months, the nation’s new prime minister, Shinzo Abe, has pushed policy makers and other officials to take bold steps to revive Japan, one of the world’s largest economies. Their handiwork was evident Friday when the yen hit 100 to the dollar for the first time in four years.
Normally a weakening exchange rate might be taken as a sign of decline. The yen has fallen nearly 14 percent against the dollar this year, and no currency has fallen more except the Venezuelan bolívar.
In Japan’s case, it is a sign that the policies put in place by Mr. Abe and Haruhiko Kuroda, chairman of the Bank of Japan, are starting to work. A weaker yen makes Japanese exports more competitive around the world.
“Abenomics is about coming out on top in global competition,” Mr. Abe said during a live interview on the Fuji Television Network. “We’re finally seeing a correction of the excessively strong yen.”
The most immediate effect of the weaker yen has been the increase in profits of major exporters. This past week, Toyota Motor reported that net income in the last 12 months had jumped threefold, and Sony produced an annual profit for the first time in five years. Both forecast further profit increases largely because of the weaker yen.
Perhaps more important, particularly for the citizens of Japan, who have suffered from a long period of falling wages and prices, the yen’s move is expected to kindle inflation in the once moribund economy.
The Bank of Japan, the central bank, has moved aggressively to reinvigorate the economy and fight deflation. Last month, it announced a decisive break with its earlier policies. Instead of focusing on keeping overnight interest rates close to zero — which seemed to be having little effect in reviving growth — the central bank aimed to double the amount of money in circulation, seeking to produce annual inflation of about 2 percent.
“This is new territory for the Bank of Japan, and the market is responding to that,” said Aroop Chatterjee, foreign exchange strategist at Barclays Capital in New York. “The Bank of Japan announced very strong monetary policy easing at the start of April.”
However, he said the more immediate catalyst for the rate’s crossing of the threshold was signs of strength in the U.S. economy.
Amari Akira, the Japanese economic revitalization minister, quickly drew attention away from Japan’s role in weakening its own currency, in a bid to stave off accusations that Japan was manipulating the yen to bolster its exports. Rather, he said, the strength of the dollar reflected investors’ hopes for an economic comeback in the United States.
“It’s the dollar that’s in demand because economic recovery in America is gathering steam,” Mr. Amari said at a morning news conference.
The efforts by the Bank of Japan to continue to flood the economy with liquidity are likely to keep downward pressure on the yen in the coming months. The central bank is following an asset purchase program to inflate the economy by aggressively buying longer-term bonds and doubling its government bond holdings in two years.
By Friday night in Tokyo, the dollar was trading at ¥101.42.
Galvanized by the yen’s renewed weakness, the Nikkei 225-stock index jumped more than 400 points, or 2.9 percent, to close in Tokyo at 14,607.54, led by exporters’ stocks.
Japanese officials say the policy does not overtly pursue a lower yen rate, which could raise tensions with other exporting nations, like the United States. But a weaker yen is a welcome development in some ways.
The depreciation of the yen may be a step in the right direction as the authorities try to stimulate some growth. However, Japan still faces many stiff challenges until it breaks out of its period of deflation. It has an aging and shrinking population and cumbersome regulations that make the economy inefficient.


As Mr. Abe has tried to put a new focus on reviving the economy, he has also fought with the central bank’s former leaders over setting the 2 percent inflation goal. Mr. Abe’s pressure in the end led to the resignation of the bank’s previous governor, Masaaki Shirakawa, a moderate, two weeks before his term was up, making way for Mr. Kuroda, who shares Mr. Abe’s economic philosophy.
Marc Chandler, global head of currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman in New York, said some in the market were speculating that the yen had been driven lower by non-Japanese investors. Those investors were anticipating that cash-rich Japanese investors were finally going to start selling their yen holdings to buy bonds from the United States and other foreign countries in a hunt for higher yields outside Japan.
While the weaker yen is good for Japanese exporters, it makes imported products more expensive. That in turn can make selling foreign goods there harder.
In a statement, the American Automotive Policy Council reacted strongly to the currency milestone. “The depth of Japanese currency manipulation has reached a new low,” said Matt Blunt, the council’s president. He said the yen’s weakening would cost the United States exports and jobs.
For Japan, what exporters do with their extra profits will be crucial in determining whether the wider economy gets a similar boost.
Recent data suggest that Japanese exporters are keeping the prices of their goods unchanged, preferring simply to expand profits instead of slashing prices to increase export volumes. (Even if they do nothing, exporters’ overseas earnings are worth more as the yen weakens).
And for now, it remains unlikely that exporters will race to bring investment, production and jobs back to an aging and shrinking Japanese population, despite the lower local costs associated with a weakening yen.
If “companies are unwilling to spend or invest in the domestic economy, then there is likely to be no positive contribution to” gross domestic product, Paul Donovan, global economist at UBS, warned in a report early Friday.
Meanwhile, there are already concerns that too weak a currency could bring pain to a nation dependent on imports for energy and food. The Fukushima nuclear crisis, which has all but shut down Japan’s nuclear power program, has already led to surging oil and natural gas imports and rising energy prices.
News shows have breathlessly covered recent price increases in items like tissue paper and canned tuna, perhaps a sign of the shock that prices should rise at all after more than a decade of deflation, rather than any immediate risk to household finances.
The key, economists say, lies in how much exporters will pass on their bigger profits to consumers, by raising wages or hiring new workers. Higher incomes would drive a much-needed recovery in consumption, bringing about a virtuous cycle of rising prices, profits, investment and even higher incomes.
Mr. Abe himself has been publicly pressuring corporate executives to raise pay, declaring on television last month that companies needed to “return favorable corporate earnings to their workers,” prompting a string of companies to declare wage increases or extra bonuses in recent months.
“If wages can rise, then the return to inflation is good news,” Nicholas Smith, Japan strategist at CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets, said in a recent research note. “If wages are going to be flat or down, all we are going to see is stagflation.”
But Mr. Abe reassured the public Friday, telling Fuji Television that the trickle-down to consumers from the weaker yen was already starting.
Tourism from overseas was already picking up, for example, as foreign visitors took advantage of the weaker yen, he said.
“It might take a year or two for everyone’s incomes to grow, but we’ve already seen things start to improve this year,” he said.
Graham Bowley reported from New York.

New York Times


jueves, 9 de mayo de 2013

Diversidad en la admisión universitaria en California


In California, Push for College Diversity Starts Earlier


David McNew for The New York Times
The University of California, Irvine, spends $7 million a year on preparing poor and minority high school students for college. More Photos »


New York Times

ANAHEIM, Calif. — As the Supreme Court weighs a case that could decide the future of affirmative action in college admissions, California offers one glimpse of a future without it.


California was one of the first states to abolish affirmative action, after voters approved Proposition 209 in 1996. Across the University of California system, Latinos fell to 12 percent of newly enrolled state residents in the mid-1990s from more than 15 percent, and blacks declined to 3 percent from 4 percent. At the most competitive campuses, at Berkeley and Los Angeles, the decline was much steeper.
Eventually, the numbers rebounded. Until last fall, 25 percent of new students were Latino, reflecting the booming Hispanic population, and 4 percent were black. A similar pattern of decline and recovery followed at other state universities that eliminated race as a factor in admissions.
If the Supreme Court justices, who are expected to rule in the coming weeks on a case involving the University of Texas at Austin, decide to curtail or abolish the use of race and ethnicity in college admissions nationwide, then the experience here and in other states that have outlawed affirmative action in college admissions decisions — including Florida, Michigan and Washington — could point to new ways for public universities to try to compose a racially and economically diverse student body.
Those states have tried a series of new approaches to choosing students, giving applicants a leg up for overcoming disadvantages like poverty, language barriers, low-performing schools and troubled neighborhoods. That process has drawn heavy scrutiny, but in California, it is only half of a two-pronged approach. Disadvantaged students in poor neighborhoods, like Erick Ramirez, a senior at Anaheim High School, are benefiting from the state university systems’ growing efforts to cultivate applicants starting in middle school.
At Elite Colleges, an Admissions Gap for Minorities

“We’ve worked very hard to widen the pipeline, and there is still an enormous need to do more,” said Mark G. Yudof, president of the University of California system.
The results of California’s efforts offer some measure of satisfaction to supporters and critics alike. Both sides hail the U.C. system’s strides toward economic — and not just racial — diversity; opponents of affirmative action claim that as vindication of their argument that it primarily benefits middle-class minority members. Supporters of race-conscious admissions acknowledge that the system has reversed the initial decline in black and Hispanic enrollment, though they say that is not enough. Whatever the merits of race-blind admissions, gifted poor and minority students are less likely than others to take the right classes to be eligible for college admission, to take the SAT or ACT, to get academic help when they need it, to fill out complex forms properly or to apply to competitive colleges.
So California’s public universities, and some of their counterparts around the country, have embedded themselves deeply in disadvantaged communities, working with schools, students and parents to identify promising teenagers and get more of them into college.
It is not enough, university administrators say, to change the way they select students; they must also change the students themselves, and begin to do so long before the time arrives to fill out applications.
Erick Ramirez lives in a neighborhood here where most parents have low incomes and speak Spanish at home, and many have not finished high school. At his school, Anaheim High, only about one student in four has passed enough high-level courses to qualify for any of California’s public universities. But Erick, the Mexican-born son of a construction worker and a school aide, received acceptance letters from several selective colleges and chose San Francisco State.
It is impossible to say whether Erick, 18, with good grades and above-average test scores, would have been accepted at the same colleges without his disadvantaged background. What is certain is that he had considerable help from an unexpected source. For three years, people who work for the nearby University of California, Irvine, have met regularly with him — on Saturdays, after school and over the summers — to help him choose courses, complete classwork, prepare for the SAT, visit college campuses, fill out applications and apply for scholarships.

“I think I would have ended up in college anyway, but it would have been a lot more difficult,” Erick said. “I wouldn’t have done as well, and I wouldn’t know about a lot of the possibilities.”


The need for such intervention unites people like Mr. Yudof, who believes that race should be a factor in admissions, and Richard D. Kahlenberg, a senior fellow at the Century Foundation, a liberal-leaning research group, who is a prominent critic of race-based affirmative action.
“If you’re serious about doing admissions based on disadvantage, it requires a lot of outreach,” Mr. Kahlenberg said. “It’s the right thing to do, but it isn’t easy, and it isn’t cheap.”
The University of California, Irvine, alone spends more than $7 million a year on that outreach, with a few hundred people working on it — mostly part time, and not always for pay — and reaching into dozens of poor neighborhoods in its region, said Stephanie Reyes-Tuccio, director of the university’s Center for Educational Partnerships.
Many of the programs predate Proposition 209, but in the years after the ban took effect the University of California system’s spending on them jumped to $85 million from $18 million, before shrinking again in the last decade.
Campuses like Irvine have made up for some of that decline with federal and private grants, their own budgets and even donated services from test-preparation companies. A few years ago, Irvine began using its own undergraduates to work part time in low-performing schools.
At their height five years ago, Ms. Reyes-Tuccio said, Irvine’s programs reached about 24,000 students, but budget retrenchment has cut that to about 10,000.
Each of the nine undergraduate campuses in the University of California system makes similar efforts, in addition to programs run by the system’s headquarters at Berkeley, and the larger, less selective California State University System.
The universities have programs that advise parents, programs to steer successful community college students into the state’s senior colleges, and programs for elementary and secondary school teachers, to improve their teaching and subject mastery. But the largest part of the outreach is aimed directly at students in low-performing middle and high schools — targeting gifted students like Erick Ramirez, as well as broader efforts for all those who might go to college.
On a recent afternoon at Anaheim High School, 25 laughing, texting seniors crowded into a computer lab to fill out the federal government’s online financial aid form. These are students who guide their parents through the English-language bureaucracy, not the other way around, so they expect little help from home. None can go to college unless they complete this form, and not one was able to do it alone.
Most were tripped up by unfamiliar terms like “emancipated minor” and “legal guardianship.” Many others stumbled on the tangled instructions to follow if their parents were not citizens or had not filed tax returns.
“You don’t have a Social Security number?” one girl said to her father in Spanish on her cellphone. The girl, an American-born citizen, was stunned to learn that he was in the country illegally.
Of the seven adults in the room, just one is an employee of the high school; three work for University of California, Irvine, and three work for California State University, Fullerton.
The universities are doing work that in more affluent communities is handled by parents and guidance counselors. But after years of budget cuts, the average counselor in a California public school sees 1,000 students, the highest figure in the country and double the national average. In a few hundred schools around the state, the U.C. system even helps pay the salaries of counselors and other support staff who would otherwise be eliminated. It taps into computers at the state’s lowest-performing high schools, where it can evaluate each transcript and alert school staff members and university outreach workers about students who are falling behind.
To qualify for the state universities, California students must earn at least Cs in higher-level courses — and many of those students are still rejected. Over the last three years, 59 percent of Asians who graduated from California high schools met the university requirements, 44 percent of whites, 28 percent of blacks and 27 percent of Latinos.
“The schools have a serious lack of resources, and the counselors can be swamped with disciplinary problems and just getting kids to graduation,” said Reginald Hillmon, who manages the transcript evaluation system. Many students are unaware, he said, of “that gap between what it takes to graduate and what it takes to get into a university.”
It is a barrier that Cristina Flores, an employee at the Irvine campus, meets regularly at Century High School in Santa Ana, where nearly half the students are not proficient in English and 80 percent are poor enough to qualify for free meals at school.
Asking a group of juniors recently about meeting the university standards, Ms. Flores got mostly blank stares. “You guys know this, right? Please? Hopefully?”
She meets some students with unrealistically high expectations of getting into a college, but far more often, she says, the problem is students’ setting their sights too low. Studies show that high-achieving, low-income students are far less likely to apply to selective colleges than their better-off counterparts, because they do not know their options, or wrongly believe that better schools are beyond their reach.
“My high school counselor never said I should go to a four-year college,” Ms. Flores, 24, said. “When I expressed interest, they were surprised, and it was already too late because I didn’t have the right classes, so I started at community college. That’s what we want to avoid with these kids.”
Spending three days a week at Century, Ms. Flores, an Irvine graduate, helps students fill out applications, reminds them of deadlines, shows them how to get fees waived, points to Web sites listing scholarships and steers them around potential pitfalls.
“Do you have to baby-sit your brothers and sisters all the time, or cook for them, or go work with your parents?” Ms. Flores asked a group of students, about half of whom raised their hands. “My mom used to make me go with her to clean houses on the weekends. I hated it. That’s why I went to college.”
“But that’s what you put on the part of the application that asks for activities and volunteering,” she said. “Because if you don’t tell them, they’ll think you didn’t do anything."Jasmin Rodriguez, 17, a senior at Century, met with Ms. Flores and her colleagues dozens of times over the last few years. She has good academic credentials and boundless energy — she created a club to help abandoned animals and revived a flagging hula dancing club.
University officials admit that it is hard to know how much difference these programs make. Most of the students they reach go on to some level of college, but those tend to be among the better students in their schools. In examining changes in U.C. enrollment, there is no way to tease out the effects of new admissions standards versus outreach to low-income students.
But to students like Jasmin, there is no doubt about the programs’ value.
“Without their guidance, I would have been so lost,” she said. “There’s so many little things you don’t know unless someone tells you.”
Jasmin will enroll at U.C.L.A. in the fall.





martes, 7 de mayo de 2013

¿Devaluar o no devaluar?


¿Qué hacer con el tipo de cambio?

POR FEDERICO STURZENEGGER PRESIDENTE DEL BANCO CIUDAD


Clarín


La semana pasada, mis declaraciones sobre que la economía sufre las consecuencias de un fuerte atraso cambiario y que el Gobierno se va a ver obligado a devaluar, dieron origen a un torbellino de declaraciones y acusaciones. Es que nos hemos desacostumbrado a confrontar los problemas. Tiramos las cosas bajo la alfombra, hasta que es insoslayable atender al problema.
El diagnóstico lo comparte toda la profesión: durante la presidencia de Cristina Kirchner se implementaron políticas que hicieron que los precios subieran casi un 200%, al tiempo que se eligió devaluar el tipo de cambio un 60%, lo que produjo un importante retraso del dólar.
El dólar se hizo barato. Esto empezaba a ser un problema claro cuando Cristina fue reelecta. Los números no cerraban y hubo que restringir importaciones, dificultar la compra de dólares y luego prohibirla, más o menos como si fuera heroína (de hecho, también se la combate con perros sabuesos).
Las consecuencias sobre la economía son las de siempre (ya las vivimos en la convertibilidad y en la tablita de la Dictadura): hace dos años que prácticamente se dejó de crear empleo (privado), aumentando la tasa de desempleo; y todo el arco exportador está “para atrás”. Sacando exportaciones de autos, a las que todavía tracciona Brasil, el resto de las exportaciones industriales está cayendo a un ritmo del 18% anual. La pregunta es qué hacer para recuperar los niveles de competitividad. Acá se abren tres opciones. La primera y más lógica es recrear en Argentina un clima favorable para la inversión y el ahorro. Con mejor seguridad jurídica y libertad para trabajar y vender, Argentina podría producir un boom de inversión y de exportaciones que sería compatible con este e incluso menores niveles para el tipo de cambio. Esta sería la apuesta de cualquier gobierno serio.
Si por el contrario se hace lo que está haciendo el Gobierno, que esespantar las inversiones con su entramado regulatorio y la falta de libertad para comerciar (medidas apropiadas si solo se tiene una Secretaría de Anti-comercio), es implausible que la competitividad pueda venir de mejoras en la productividad y la inversión. De ese callejón, la única manera de salir es devaluando.
Esta es la alternativa en la que está embreado el Gobierno y será el camino que más pronto que tarde se verá obligado por la fuerza de los hechos a implementar. Esta inevitabilidad se visualiza si se extrapolan la inflación y las tasas de devaluaciones actuales, que muestran que Cristina terminaría con un tipo de cambio más apreciado incluso que el devastador tipo de cambio de Martínez de Hoz. Inviable.
La tercera opción es paliar la falta de divisas con mayores controles y prohibiciones: límites a las tarjetas, aumentar el dólar turismo, desdoblamiento cambiario, dólar financiero, etc.
Son maneras de devaluar pero a lo K: decidiendo a quién se le da un tipo de cambio mejor y a quién uno peo r. Un esquema apto para seguir poniendo a los actores económicos de rodillas y usando al Estado para consolidar su poder.
Mientras que un gobierno lógico intentaría la primera opción, solo en emergencia la segunda y nunca la tercera, la historia del kirchnerismo nos enseña que implementará la última, se verá forzado a implementar la segunda y nunca optaría por la primera.
Es que hay un problema aun más serio. Roberto Feletti afirmó que la inflación es del 10%. Sin ver la realidad es difícil encontrar las soluciones.



lunes, 6 de mayo de 2013

Alemania sigue el camino de la austeridad

El Diktat alemán



 Por Boaventura de Sousa Santos *
En la reciente reunión entre el secretario del Tesoro norteamericano, Jacob Lew, y el superministro alemán Wolfgang Schäuble (foto) quedó demostrado que el fundamentalismo neoliberal hoy domina más en Europa que en los Estados Unidos. Ante la recomendación realizada por Lew para que Europa atenúe el énfasis en la austeridad y promueva el crecimiento económico, el ministro alemán respondió desabridamente que “nadie en Europa ve una contradicción entre consolidación fiscal y crecimiento” y que “debemos detener este debate que nos dice que tenemos que optar entre austeridad y crecimiento”. Demostrar que hay alternativas a los dictados del nacional-austeritarismo alemán y que son políticamente viables es el mayor desafío que enfrentan las sociedades europeas en la actualidad. El desafío es común, aunque su concreción varíe en cada país.
La historia europea muestra de manera muy trágica que no es un desafío fácil. La razón alemana tiene un lastre de predestinación divina que el filósofo Fichte definió bien en 1807, cuando contrapuso al alemán con el extranjero de esta forma: el alemán es al extranjero como el espíritu a la materia, como el bien al mal. Ante esto, cualquier compromiso es una señal de flaqueza y de inferioridad. El propio derecho tiene que ceder ante la fuerza para que ésta no se debilite. Cuando a comienzos de la Primera Guerra Mundial, hace casi un siglo, Alemania invadió y destruyó Bélgica bajo el falso pretexto de defenderse de Francia, violó todos los tratados internacionales, dada la neutralidad de aquel pequeño país (las agresiones alemanas tienden históricamente a tomar como primer blanco a los países más débiles). Sin ningún escrúpulo, el canciller alemán declaró en el Parlamento: “La ilegalidad que practicamos debemos procurar repararla en cuanto hayamos alcanzado nuestro objetivo militar. Cuando se está amenazado y se lucha por un bien supremo, cada cual se gobierna como puede”.
Esta arrogancia no excluye cierta magnanimidad, siempre que las víctimas se porten bien. En la nota que la Cancillería alemana le envió a la Cancillería belga el 2 de agosto de 1914 –un documento que quedará en la historia como un monumento a la mentira y la felonía internacional– constan las siguientes condiciones: “3. Si Bélgica observa una actitud benévola, Alemania se compromete, de acuerdo con las autoridades del gobierno belga, a comprar con dinero contado todo lo necesario para sus tropas y a compensar los daños causados en Bélgica por las tropas alemanas. 4. Si Bélgica se comporta de un modo hostil a las tropas alemanas y si, especialmente, plantea dificultades a su marcha... Alemania estará obligada, con gran disgusto suyo, a considerar a Bélgica como a un enemigo”. Es decir, si, como diríamos hoy, los belgas eran buenos alumnos y se dejaban utilizar por los intereses alemanes, su sacrificio, aunque injusto, recibiría una hipotética recompensa. De lo contrario, sufrirían sin compasión ni piedad. Como sabemos, Bélgica, inspirada por el rey Alberto, decidió no ser buena alumna y pagó por eso el elevado precio de la destrucción y las masacres, una agresión tan vil que se conoció como la “violación de Bélgica”.
Dada esta superioridad über alles (sobre todos), humillar la arrogancia alemana siempre ha implicado mucha destrucción material y humana, tanto de los pueblos víctimas de esa arrogancia como del pueblo alemán. Claro que la historia nunca se repite y que Alemania es hoy un país sin poder militar, gobernado por una democracia bien consolidada. Pero tres hechos perturbadores obligan a los demás países europeos a tener en cuenta la historia. En primer lugar, es perturbador verificar que el poder económico alemán se ha convertido en fuente de una ortodoxia europea que beneficia unilateralmente a Alemania, al contrario de lo que ésta quiere hacer creer. También en 1914 el gobierno imperial pretendía convencer a los belgas de que la invasión alemana era para su bien, “un deber imperioso de conservación”, y que “el gobierno alemán lamentaría vivamente que Bélgica considerara (a la invasión) como un acto de hostilidad”, como está escrito en la infame declaración ya mencionada. En segundo lugar, son perturbadoras las expresiones de prejuicio racial de la opinión pública alemana en relación con los países latinoamericanos. Traen a la memoria al antropólogo racista alemán Ludwig Woltmann (1871-1907), quien, disconforme con el genio de algunos latinos (Dante, Da Vinci, Galileo, etc.), intentó germanizarlos. Se cuenta, por ejemplo, que le escribió a Benedetto Croce para preguntarle si el gran Gianbattista Vico era alto y de ojos azules. Ante la respuesta negativa, no se desconcertó y replicó: “Sea como fuere, Vico deriva evidentemente del alemán Wieck”. Hoy todo esto parece ridículo, pero viene a la memoria, sobre todo, teniendo en cuenta un tercer hecho perturbador. Una encuesta realizada hace poco más de un año entre estudiantes de escuelas secundarias alemanas (jóvenes de entre 14 y 16 años) reveló que un tercio no sabía quién fue Hitler y que el 40 por ciento estaba convencido de que, desde 1933, los derechos humanos siempre fueron respetados por los gobiernos alemanes.
* Doctor en Sociología del Derecho; profesor de las universidades de Coimbra (Portugal) y de Wisconsin (EE.UU.).
Traducción: Javier Lorca.
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