¿Qué nos impulsa a hacer lo correcto?
Una mirada a la investigación cerebral reciente sobre donaciones voluntarias frente a evitar el castigo
Consider un establecimiento preescolar promedio, que termina cada día con los padres yendo a recoger a sus niños. Pero hay un problema: Un puñado de padres llegan habitualmente tarde. La escuela envía una nota, instando a la puntualidad: "Por favor sea considerado de nuestro maravilloso personal que, después de un largo día de cuidar a sus hijos, están cansados y quieren volver a casa", etc.
Esto funciona con algunos padres, pero todavía hay tardíos crónicos. La escuela se convierte finalmente en punitiva. Los padres que llegan tarde comienza a recibir una multa añadidas a la factura de la matrícula. ¿Qué sucede? Contra toda lógica aparente, aumenta la incidencia de tardanzas.
He visto el equivalente en el mundo académico. El personal de la facultad hace ciertas tareas de forma espontánea, ya que son buenos ciudadanos departamentales. Algunos lo hacen un montón, otros son vagos, pero las cosas se hacen. A continuación, un administrador pronuncia que este acto voluntario se requiere ahora que se haga X veces al año. Los vagos que habían estado haciendo menos de X ahora hacen lo necesario X. Pero los que solían hacer algo más que X a su vez hacen X también.
Los padres que están constantemente tarde a recoger a sus hijos de edad preescolar podrían enfrentar multas añadidos a la factura de la matrícula , pero el castigo no parece frenar su comportamiento. Getty Images
Estos efectos paradójicos se producen debido a la introducción de la pena re-clasifica el comportamiento. Un acto que una vez que te hizo un hombre de integridad ahora lo convierte en un administrador hoy. Cuando una mano autoritaria impone un piso de "al menos", los destinatarios del edicto a menudo la convierten en un techo de «como máximo». Llegar tarde a la escuela preescolar antes de la imposición de multas y eras un desconsiderado. Llegar tarde después y ahora sólo estás incurriendo en otro gasto preescolar.
Resulta que haciendo lo correcto voluntariamente es muy diferente de hacerlo para evitar el castigo. Una investigación reciente revela incluso una base en el cerebro para esta distinción.
En un experimento, un participante en un juego económico se le da dinero. En la primera ronda, ella elige si desea compartir nada de eso con otro participante anónimo. En el segundo, se hace la misma elección sabiendo que el otro jugador puede castigarla después si se siente infeliz. No es de extrañar, la cantidad compartida aumenta, y la magnitud de ese aumento indica el grado de "cumplimiento de la norma inducida por la sanción."
Antes el trabajo de imágenes cerebrales ha demostrado que dicho cumplimiento se asoció con una mayor actividad en una región del cerebro llamada la corteza prefrontal lateral derecha (rLPFC). Esto fue realmente interesante, ya que la corteza prefrontal está involucrada en el control de impulsos y posponer la gratificación.
Pero esto era sólo una correlación entre la activación rLPFC y cumplimiento de la norma inducida por la sanción. Reportando en la revista Science, los investigadores de la Universidad de Zurich tomaron las cosas un paso más allá, en realidad el control de la actividad en el rLPFC mediante el uso de la estimulación transcraneal de corriente directa. En función de la polaridad de la corriente utilizada, pueden activar o inhibir la región del cerebro con el simple accionamiento de un interruptor.
Cuando se activa el rLPFC en los sujetos, el cumplimiento de la norma inducida por sanción - se incrementó, cuando inhibieron la rLPFC, ocurrió lo contrario. La alteración de la actividad rLPFC no cambió cómo los participantes punitivas prevé otro jugador sería en respuesta a su oferta, sino que simplemente ha cambiado el grado de cumplimiento de la amenaza del castigo.
Los investigadores también fueron capaces de demostrar que se trataba de un acto social. Manipulando el rLPFC no cambiaba el comportamiento cuando la gente jugaron contra un equipo "preprogramado para responder de la misma manera que un ser humano."
¿Qué pasa con las donaciones voluntarias? El escenario preescolar sugiere que no se incrementaría con la estimulación del rLPFC. Circuitos neuronales diferentes estaría involucrado. Fundamentalmente, no solo estimular la rLPFC no aumentaría el intercambio voluntario, sino que lo disminuiría (y, a la inversa, la inhibición de la rLPFC la aumentaría).
Einstein dijo una vez que no se puede preparar de forma simultánea para la guerra y la paz. Hay algo similar aquí. Esta región clave del cerebro no puede pedirle al mismo tiempo para hacer lo correcto porque es lo correcto y porque de lo contrario te vas a conseguir su culo pateado.
Wall Street Journal
El blog reúne material de noticias de teoría y aplicaciones de conceptos básicos de economía en la vida diaria. Desde lo micro a lo macro pasando por todas las vertientes de los coyuntural a lo más abstracto de la teoría. La ciencia económica es imperial.
lunes, 6 de enero de 2014
domingo, 5 de enero de 2014
¿Suiza hacia un comunismo real?
¿Habrá un comunismo real en Suiza?
Suiza está considerando introducir la ley de la renta básica universal. Garantizaría un pago mensual por parte del Estado de unos 2.800 dólares a cualquier ciudadano mayor de edad y unos 700 dólares a cada niño.
Será un monto que el Gobierno del país pagará sin condición alguna a cualquier ciudadano, tenga o no un trabajo e independientemente de su situación económica general. El pasado 4 de octubre los impulsores de la iniciativa entregaron más de 126.000 firmas a favor de organizar un referéndum nacional sobre el tema a la Cancillería Federal del país. Desde el año 1981, los suizos tienen el derecho de solicitar un referéndum sobre cualquier tipo de cuestión si logran recaudar 100.000 firmas. Los resultados tienen efecto legislativo. Ahora, las autoridades tienen 5,5 años para organizar la votación nacional, aunque los activistas pronostican que el referéndum podría tener lugar ya en 2014.
En caso de aprobarse la iniciativa popular, el proyecto costará al presupuesto estatal unos 200.000 millones de francos suizos por año (unos 224 millones de dólares), casi un tercio del PIB, según calcula el diario 'Neue Zürcher Zeitung'. Sin embargo, los promotores del proyecto aseguran que esta suma no es un problema para el país, que gasta unos 70.000 millones de francos anuales (78.000 millones de dólares) en subsidios sociales. Argumentan que con la introducción de la renta básica universal (RB), el sistema burocrático —que hoy en día es necesario para decidir a quién otorgar la ayuda estatal y a quién no— dejará de existir, lo que liberará recursos adicionales.
Aseguran, además, que la RB permitirá hacer más atractivos los trabajos poco populares y mal pagados. Insisten en que un mínimo mensual garantizado no privará a la gente del deseo de trabajar, ya que la mayoría trabaja porque ve importante lo que está haciendo y siente que la sociedad valora positivamente su labor. Acentúan que la RB aumentará la productividad, ya que todo el mundo se dedicará al trabajo que realmente le guste, dejando aparte las prioridades materiales: no tendrá miedo de cambiar de trabajo y experimentar. Además, la gente tendrá más tiempo para educar a los niños y prestar asistencia a los familiares enfermos.
RT Actualidad
Será un monto que el Gobierno del país pagará sin condición alguna a cualquier ciudadano, tenga o no un trabajo e independientemente de su situación económica general. El pasado 4 de octubre los impulsores de la iniciativa entregaron más de 126.000 firmas a favor de organizar un referéndum nacional sobre el tema a la Cancillería Federal del país. Desde el año 1981, los suizos tienen el derecho de solicitar un referéndum sobre cualquier tipo de cuestión si logran recaudar 100.000 firmas. Los resultados tienen efecto legislativo. Ahora, las autoridades tienen 5,5 años para organizar la votación nacional, aunque los activistas pronostican que el referéndum podría tener lugar ya en 2014.
En caso de aprobarse la iniciativa popular, el proyecto costará al presupuesto estatal unos 200.000 millones de francos suizos por año (unos 224 millones de dólares), casi un tercio del PIB, según calcula el diario 'Neue Zürcher Zeitung'. Sin embargo, los promotores del proyecto aseguran que esta suma no es un problema para el país, que gasta unos 70.000 millones de francos anuales (78.000 millones de dólares) en subsidios sociales. Argumentan que con la introducción de la renta básica universal (RB), el sistema burocrático —que hoy en día es necesario para decidir a quién otorgar la ayuda estatal y a quién no— dejará de existir, lo que liberará recursos adicionales.
Aseguran, además, que la RB permitirá hacer más atractivos los trabajos poco populares y mal pagados. Insisten en que un mínimo mensual garantizado no privará a la gente del deseo de trabajar, ya que la mayoría trabaja porque ve importante lo que está haciendo y siente que la sociedad valora positivamente su labor. Acentúan que la RB aumentará la productividad, ya que todo el mundo se dedicará al trabajo que realmente le guste, dejando aparte las prioridades materiales: no tendrá miedo de cambiar de trabajo y experimentar. Además, la gente tendrá más tiempo para educar a los niños y prestar asistencia a los familiares enfermos.
RT Actualidad
sábado, 4 de enero de 2014
50% de inflación implícita en Argentina, según Hanke
El ideólogo de la Convertibilidad afirma que la Argentina esconde una inflación de casi el 50%
El economista Steve Hanke elabora un índice propio que considera el mercado de dólar paralelo para determinar el real aumento general de precios
El economista Steve Hanke elabora un índice propio que considera el mercado de dólar paralelo para determinar el real aumento general de precios
El economista Steve Hanke, que en 1989 conoció al ex presidente Carlos Menem y, algunos años después, le propuso crear una caja de conversión para paliar la inflación que vivía la Argentina (la Convertibilidad que Domingo Cavallo ejecutó), está de regreso.
El analista estadounidense, de la Johns Hopkins University y Cato Institute, elabora un índice que mide la "real" inflación que esconden los países con tipos de cambio paralelos. La Argentina aparece en la lista con una inflación implícita que ronda el 50%, en la última actualización a fines del año pasado.
Según su "Troubled Currencies Project" (proyecto de monedas en problemas), en el país hay una inflación "escondida" del 48% anual mientras que el Gobierno sólo admite algo más del 10%. Los datos que toma son el tipo de cambio del mercado paralelo y la tasa de inflación en EE.UU.
No obstante, el caso de la Argentina no es el peor de la muestra. También existen mercados paralelos del dólar en países como Venezuela que escondería un aumento general de precios del 261% según el trabajo de Hanke cuando oficialmente el gobierno de Nicolás Maduro admite un 54%. Siria, Corea del Norte y Egipto completan la lista con tipos de cambio paralelos que esconden tasas de inflación mayores a las oficialmente publicadas.
"Para los académicos, el término 'moneda en problemas' podría ser un término técnico. Pero para las personas que se enfrentan a esa divisa, saben reconocerla cuando lo ven. Hoy en día, este es el caso para millones de personas en todo el mundo, sobre todo en Irán, Corea del Norte, Argentina, Venezuela, Egipto y Siria", escribió Hanke en Business Insider.
"Una moneda con problemas es una en la que los usuarios han perdido la confianza. Cuando los usuarios ya no creen que una moneda mantendrá su poder adquisitivo, tratan de cambiarla por una moneda extranjera estable (o materias primas). A medida que la demanda de la 'moneda con problemas' se evapora, su valor frente a las monedas extranjeras estables se colapsa, y los precios de los bienes y servicios que se venden en la moneda con problemas se disparan", explica en declaraciones consignadas por Infobae.
"Mientras se desarrolla este proceso, las expectativas sobre la capacidad de la moneda para mantener su poder adquisitivo se deterioran, y un ciclo fatal sobreviene", alerta el ideólogo de la Convertibilidad.
viernes, 3 de enero de 2014
La penetración móvil en África llega al 80%
African mobile penetration hits 80% (and is growing faster than anywhere else)
John Koetsier
We tend to have certain paradigms about the “developing world” and the “developing world,” including Africa. Including, of course, media-fed images of Africa as a place of almost irredeemable poverty, deprivation, and pain.
Many of our paradigms are, of course, illusions.
A new report on the African telecommunications market highlights that mobile penetration in Africa hit 80 percent in the first quarter of this year, and is still growing at 4.2 percent annually. That’s faster than anywhere else in the world, the report says, and the 54 countries of Africa are, after Asia, the world’s second-largest market.
Which means that today, more than eight in ten Africans have a mobile phone.
In part, that’s driven by a massive reduction in the costs of owning a mobile phone: The average revenue per user for telecom companies has dropped 80 percent between 2001 and 2011. Economies of scale have taken hold now as the basic infrastructure has been built out, and more competition by independent (not state-owned) telecoms has driven down prices.
That’s good for Africans, of course, and good for the market in the long term as well. And there’s still a lot of room to grow, of course.
Most mobile connections — 62.7 percent, or almost two thirds — are basic 2G voice and SMS services, the report says. Of the remaining third, about 27 percent have access to 2.5G for low-speed data, and just 11 percent have 3G access — never mind LTE.
As more and more infrastructure is built, however, data services and connection speeds are increasing. Data revenue for telecoms has grown 67 percent in the key African countries of South Africa, Kenya, and Nigeria in the past few years. And while smartphones are cost-prohibitive for some, current penetration is at 20 percent and are project to grow fast — almost 600 percent in Nigeria alone by 2017.
jueves, 2 de enero de 2014
La deuda de tarjeta de crédito hace una vida apretada
I Have A Six-Figure Salary, Yet I'm Still In Financial Trouble
Holly Michaelson
A few weeks ago I spent a quiet weekend at home. While I should’ve been relaxing—cooking, reading, enjoying my beautiful apartment after a busy week of traveling for work—I was totally stressed. That’s because there was a huge pile of bills on my dining room table, and I couldn’t shake the sinking feeling that I couldn’t pay them.
Business Insider
Holly Michaelson
A few weeks ago I spent a quiet weekend at home. While I should’ve been relaxing—cooking, reading, enjoying my beautiful apartment after a busy week of traveling for work—I was totally stressed. That’s because there was a huge pile of bills on my dining room table, and I couldn’t shake the sinking feeling that I couldn’t pay them.
Here’s the kicker: I should be able to pay these bills. I’m a pharmacist making $100,000 a year. But over the course of the last year, I’ve racked up nearly $14,000 in credit card debt. I hadn’t told a single soul about this debt until this particular Saturday night. I knew it was time to come clean to someone, so I called my mom, who came straight over.
“Ooooh, that’s not good,” she said, when I confessed exactly how much debt I was in. But she also wasn’t totally surprised. My mom and I were in a car accident a year and a half ago, so she knew I was facing some serious medical bills. When I told her the debt was due to more than those costs, she gave me some great advice: “Tomorrow morning, go through every single one of your expenses,” she told me. “Then figure out what’s necessary and what’s not. Doing that will help you get a handle on this.”
The next day, I sat at my desk and did just that. Netflix? Goner. All those premium cable movie channels? Canceled. Two online dating accounts? Done-zo. (I’m done with online dating on a few different levels, but that’s another story.) Nights out in New York City with my girlfriends? Not for a while.
What I realized very quickly was that I was spending around $300 a month (and sometimes more) on stuff I just didn’t need. I thought I could afford a certain lifestyle given my income. I also felt like I deserved all of these extras. After all, I work my butt off. I should be able to treat myself! But what I saw when I took a detailed look at my expenses was that I was being excessive, and while giving up Netflix was a good start, I was going to need to do more to get out of debt.
Why Credit Cards Used to Scare Me
In 2009 I graduated from Duquesne University in Pittsburgh with a pharmaceutical degree. I chose to do a six-year doctorate program right from the start, as I always knew I wanted to be a pharmacist. My parents told me they’d pay for four years of college, and anything else would have to be my responsibility. So I accrued about $70,000 in student loans during those last two years of pharmaceutical school.
When I got out of college, I did a post-doc fellowship at Rutgers University in New Jersey, where I worked as an adjunct professor and spent 75% to 80% of my time working on cardiovascular drug development at Merck. My annual salary was $40,000 my first year, and that climbed to $43,000 my second year. I deferred my student loans, but still tried to pay some of that debt off when I could.
My rent was around $1,500 a month, and since I was living about 40 minutes outside New York City, the cost of living was pretty expensive. That meant my budget was tight. At times, I found myself calling my parents saying, “Hey, can you help me out?” But I never got into debt. I had a credit card with a low credit limit, but I was terrified to use it. I didn’t want to get into the kind of situation I’m in now.
“I was still at a steady pace of charging around $1,000 a month. When I started seeing the amount of debt I had, I freaked.”
After my post-doc, I continued working for Merck as a medical writer, and the money was awesome; they were practically throwing it at me. I was making $110 an hour, which I calculated to be around $280,000 a year. Even though I decided the money didn’t make up for how much I hated the job—I wasn’t using any of the skills or knowledge that I went to school for—it was a great experience, and one that allowed me to start my own consulting practice. So I quit that job and started a medical writing consulting business, and I was making good money while I looked for another job.
Then, in June 2012, my mom and I were in a car accident. We were driving on a four-lane highway, and a car in the opposite lane made a left-hand turn on a red arrow. My mom, who was driving, had no time to stop, so we T-boned the other car. At first, we
thought our injuries were minor enough, even though my mom’s car was totaled.
When we got to the hospital, my mom was treated for burns on her legs from the airbags, and I was experiencing shoulder and back pain. But a couple months after the accident, my back pain persisted. I went to chiropractors and physical therapists and tried all kinds of treatments to feel better, but I couldn’t shake the feeling that something was off.
How I Began Getting Into Debt
While I was dealing with these symptoms, I actually got a call from a recruiter and landed the job I have now. I love it, and at $100,000 a year, I’m compensated well. However, a couple weeks after I started, my back pain got worse, and sure enough an MRI showed serious problems: I had a herniated disc, as well as a shattered disc in my lower spine that was causing nerve damage (and resulting pain that shot down my legs).
My doctors told me that my only option was surgery to remove the pieces of my shattered disc that were causing the nerve issues. Since I was self-employed at the time of the car accident, my current insurance wouldn’t pay for all of my medical expenses. (I was insured when I was self-employed, but that coverage wasn’t great.)
To cut a long, fighting-with-insurance-companies story short, I ended up with more than $200,000 in medical bills after my back surgery, and insurance only covered about 60 percent of that. Which meant I was receiving big medical bills that I just couldn’t afford. That’s what led me to apply for a credit card in the first place.
Since my salary was so high, my credit limit was high—around $14,000. I started using my card to pay down some of the most pressing doctor’s bills, but I never thought I’d get close to the limit. I also paid $25,000 in medical expenses out of my savings, and hired an attorney to work with me on getting my insurance companies to pay for some of the remaining $25,000. But then, I started using the card for more than medical bills. I started using it to pay for groceries. Then I started using it when I found a cute lamp or rug for my apartment.
It turns out all of the little purchases I made—even ones that were on sale and were actually a screamin’ deal—added up just as quickly as if I’d bought a few big-ticket items. When I was in spending mode, I didn’t realize what was happening. Now that I have distance from my spending spree, I can see how quickly and easily the debt grew.
Why I Spent the Way I Did
It’s interesting to really look at why you spend money. For starters, I think I was spending more than I otherwise would because I was down about my injuries. After my surgery, I spent a good bit of time flat on my back recovering. I put on weight, which didn’t help me feel any better. So while I wasn’t interested in buying clothes, I did buy a lot of nice things for my apartment.
I also had this sense that I could afford everything. After all, my salary was so high. Of course I could afford to furnish my apartment with the nicest things. What’s more, I grew up with a certain standard of living. My dad is in real estate and my parents live in a pretty affluent area, and I want my life to be similar in many ways. Even though I’m renting, I was able to paint and decorate. I wanted my home to be comfy, cozy and to project a certain lifestyle. I wanted it to be something I could be proud of.
Finally, I felt like because I was working so hard for the money I was earning, I deserved all of these nice things. This created a perfect storm for me to spend like crazy without really taking stock of where my money was going.
My Get-Out-of-Debt Plan
That same weekend I spent stressed-out about my growing pile of bills, I seriously considered opening up another credit card. That’s when I said to myself, “Wait, what?! You’ve already dug yourself into a hole,” and called my mom.
For a few months I hadn’t been able to pay the minimum balance on the card I had, and I was still at a steady pace of charging around $1,000 a month. When I saw the amount of debt I had on my card, I freaked.
Now my spending freeze has set me on a plan to pay down my debt quickly. My goal is to put $800 to $1,000 a month toward my balance. I don’t go out for dinner nearly as much as I used to, and I pack my lunches almost every day. I’m also committed to keeping extraneous expenses to a minimum. Sure, it’s hard not to go out to dinner and then to a club in the city with my friends, but this goal is more important to me right now. I’m also paying about $400 a month toward my student loans, and I’m investing 5% of my salary into a 401(k).
I’m glad I confided in my mother; she checks in with me on how I’m doing, and is such a good sounding board. If I’m shopping and see something that would be cool in my place, I’ll call her and say, “I know I shouldn’t spend money on this.” And she validates that, reminding me of how good I’ll feel when I’m out of this debt.
On the upside, I’m sure this experience will change my spending and savings habits forever. Once I have this card paid off and don’t have this umbrella of debt hanging over me, I’m going to feel amazing. And I’ll be even more committed to doing everything possible to never carry a credit card balance again.
Business Insider
Journales de Economía: B a E
miércoles, 1 de enero de 2014
Oro que me hiciste mal... y sin embargo te quiero
Gold just had its worst year since 1981
By Matt Phillips @MatthewPhillips
By Matt Phillips @MatthewPhillips
Gold still makes a lovely helmet. Reuters/Bogdan Cristel
Alas, it seems like gold bugs have given up on the arrival of the long-awaited, Weimar-style hyper-inflation in US.
The dawning realization has sent futures prices for the precious metal down a bit more than 28% this year, to just above $1,200 per troy ounce. And that’s made itone of the worst assets to own this year. (Yes, some commodities such as corn (-39%) and silver (-35%) have done even worse.)
Barring a year-end rally of remarkable proportions tomorrow, this is going to be the worst year for gold since 1981, when the metal tumbled more than 30%.
Of course, inflation was a real thing back in the early 1980s. And gold’s crash in 1981 coincided with maverick Fed Chairman Paul Volcker’s effort to stamp it out. Volcker’s cure was costly. By jacking up the Federal Funds rate to a nose-bleeding 20%, he sank the economy into a deep recession.
Alas, it seems like gold bugs have given up on the arrival of the long-awaited, Weimar-style hyper-inflation in US.
The dawning realization has sent futures prices for the precious metal down a bit more than 28% this year, to just above $1,200 per troy ounce. And that’s made itone of the worst assets to own this year. (Yes, some commodities such as corn (-39%) and silver (-35%) have done even worse.)
Barring a year-end rally of remarkable proportions tomorrow, this is going to be the worst year for gold since 1981, when the metal tumbled more than 30%.
Of course, inflation was a real thing back in the early 1980s. And gold’s crash in 1981 coincided with maverick Fed Chairman Paul Volcker’s effort to stamp it out. Volcker’s cure was costly. By jacking up the Federal Funds rate to a nose-bleeding 20%, he sank the economy into a deep recession.
The rationale behind the recent surge of gold prices was far more specious. Inflation-focused investors argued that the Federal Reserve’s recent effort to push new money into the economy by buying bonds—known as quantitative easing—would inevitably set off a spiral of inflation.
It hasn’t. In fact, inflation is only of concern right now because it is too low, consistently undershooting the US central bank’s stated goal of about 2% a year. Here’s a look at the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge:
And now that the Fed has announced its plan to start trimming its bond purchases—the long-awaited taper—it seems like investors are finding an even tougher time justifying owning the metal.
On the other hand, don’t feel too bad for the gold bugs. This year will be the first time since 2000 that gold has actually had a down year. And between the end of 2008 and gold’s peak in August 2011, the metal had surged 113%. If gold bugs didn’t lighten up on their holdings then, they have no one to blame but themselves.
It hasn’t. In fact, inflation is only of concern right now because it is too low, consistently undershooting the US central bank’s stated goal of about 2% a year. Here’s a look at the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge:
And now that the Fed has announced its plan to start trimming its bond purchases—the long-awaited taper—it seems like investors are finding an even tougher time justifying owning the metal.
On the other hand, don’t feel too bad for the gold bugs. This year will be the first time since 2000 that gold has actually had a down year. And between the end of 2008 and gold’s peak in August 2011, the metal had surged 113%. If gold bugs didn’t lighten up on their holdings then, they have no one to blame but themselves.
martes, 31 de diciembre de 2013
¿Por qué no estudiar abogacía en USA?
Este triste gráfico de flujo hilarante le convencerá de no ir a la Facultad de Derecho
Erin Fuchs
Un abogado de Connecticut llamado Samuel Browning ha creado un diagrama de flujo masivo de la lista de todos los terribles razones que la gente quiere ir a la escuela de leyes en estos días.
Esa carta se basó en el libro "No vaya a la Escuela de Derecho (A menos que)", de Paul Campos, que esboza las pocas buenas razones para obtener un doctorado en leyes en el mercado actual. Matt Leichter publicó el diagrama de flujo en su Law School Tuition Bubble blog, y él y Browning nos han dado permiso para publicarlo aquí.
Como puede ver, la carta de Browning pudo contener la mayor parte de los aspirantes abogado incluso de tomar el LSAT. Compruébalo por ti mismo:
Business Insider
Erin Fuchs
Un abogado de Connecticut llamado Samuel Browning ha creado un diagrama de flujo masivo de la lista de todos los terribles razones que la gente quiere ir a la escuela de leyes en estos días.
Esa carta se basó en el libro "No vaya a la Escuela de Derecho (A menos que)", de Paul Campos, que esboza las pocas buenas razones para obtener un doctorado en leyes en el mercado actual. Matt Leichter publicó el diagrama de flujo en su Law School Tuition Bubble blog, y él y Browning nos han dado permiso para publicarlo aquí.
Como puede ver, la carta de Browning pudo contener la mayor parte de los aspirantes abogado incluso de tomar el LSAT. Compruébalo por ti mismo:
Business Insider
domingo, 29 de diciembre de 2013
El oro en el apocalipsis: ¿A cuanto cotizaría?
Since November, financial advisor David Marotta has been publishing a series of blog posts on how to manage your money in the event of a financial apocalypse—as in a world of hyperinflation, governmental collapse, and anarachic mobs. You know, the standard stuff of a doomsday prepper's fever dreams. While Marotta admits he has some fears about the direction of the country (the man's not an Obamacare fan, to say the least) most of it seems to be fairly tongue-in-cheek material aimed at talking potential clients down from investing in some of the crazy, survivalist scams advertised on conservative talk radio. (Sadly, TheWashington Examiner seems to have missed the humor).
And the first scam on his agenda? Plowing all your money into gold, of course. Here's his biblically inflected explanation of why toting around a suitcase of gold come the end times—and at today's prices, a $1 million in gold coins would fit in a suitcase—would be a suboptimal strategy:
If there really is a collapse of the money supply it is difficult to believe that your briefcase of pretty coins will still have any purchasing power near $1 million. In the 1970s, Christian singer Larry Norman made popular the Apocalyptic song lyric, “A piece of bread could buy a bag of gold” based on Revelation 6:6. In The End, I’d rather not have bought as much gold as possible.
In other words, when an economy goes full-on Mad Max and we're all reduced to bartering, the survivors are going to be more interested in useful goods than in a soft metal useful mostly for ornamental purposes. Part of gold's value as a commodity is derived from the fact that it can easily be traded across borders. But if that were no longer an option, and you were reduced to using bullion to buy a baguette, it wouldn't really matter what people in China or India were willing to pay for your gold.
I would also add that, in a truly Hobbesian state of nature, it might not be wise to keep all your wealth stored in a small, easily pilfered box.
Now, in fairness to the goldbugs out there, I think Marotta is oversimplifying a bit. Let's say the United States has a bout of Zimbabwe-like inflation, but the international commodities markets stay up and running. Theoretically, if the collapse of the world's reserve currency hasn't shocked the entire global economy into paralysis, you might be able to trade your gold for Euros or Swiss Francs or whatever else the markets start denominating prices in and start a nice little import business.
The problem is that if doomsday doesn't arrive, you're probably stuck with a bum investment. As Marotta puts it: "Gold has a low expected return of just inflation and one of the highest volatilities as measured by standard deviation. That means that the optimum asset allocation to gold is always zero."
His bottom line? Keep the shiny stuff to less than 3 percent of your portfolio. And, if you're really convinced the end is nigh, I say stick with canned goods.
sábado, 28 de diciembre de 2013
Convirtiendo un libro en ventas
How to Make Your Book a Bestseller
An imagined guide to successful self-promotion
The Atlantic
More and more often these days, authors are considered responsible for their own success—and those who were once responsible for promoting them now tout the glories of self-promotion. Or, as a cheery New York literary agent recently put it, “You, the author, have an unprecedented amount of control over the way people discover you and your work, and how your ‘presence’ is presented to the world.”
Here’s what an author's guide to stardom might look like in the near future.
What a fortunate time to be an author. With the range of social and antisocial media at your disposal, you, the author, have unlimited opportunities to reach every single member of your potential audience. And we have your back, we do. That’s why we’ve assembled these tips for getting the world’s attention. It’s time for you to think outside the book.
The Internet
Finding the right audience is like online dating. Who loves long walks in the rain?There’s a soul mate for your Portland-born Samantha! Is someone enamored of the majestic beauty abundant in America’s national parks? Marry this novel, already! All you, the author, have to do is play matchmaker.
Your ripe and delicious novel could be all over that internet like a brag on Facebook. Take the passage where Samantha climbs Half Dome to meet up with Hugo. You might:
- Write a life-changing essay about a trek of your own, and submit it to LifeChangingHikes.net, YosemiteAfternoons.com, StoriesBehindPeopleNamedSamantha.net, or the Huffington Post.
- Craft a dozen painstakingly researched pieces on Samantha’s gear. Offer these to blogs devoted to day packs, crampons, tampons, etc.
- Post a novel excerpt in TripAdvisor’s Yosemite comments section.
- Write a quiz on Literary Hikes for your Goodreads author page—give away your novel as a prize!
- Organize a flash mob performance atop Half Dome. Don’t hesitate to go full frontal Hollywood—maybe the crowd wears bear suits and ranger hats, though wet T-shirts work, too. All the better if you can do it on a double-rainbow day. Hiring several videographers will ensure that you have abundant footage for fashioning a two-minute You-Tube clip.
If each of the above leads four people to your novel, you, the author, will have nearly two dozen new readers. So start generating related content that your audience can use!
Book Clubs
Get chosen, already. Handy things to remember:
- You, the author, have written the perfect book for any club, whether centered around dogs, Nobel Laureates, or 19th-century classics. After all, Samantha names her kitten Aung San Suu Kitty—there’s the Nobel tie-in. With the same page count as Middlemarch and a review citing your “dickens of a plot”—hello, 19th century! And for the dog lovers, there’s your vet’s blog post, featuring that author photo of you surrounded by rescue greyhounds.
- Volunteer to make personal appearances. Samantha’s campfire-roasted quail? Treat the club to a mini-wing fest. The brandy toddies steaming forth from Hugo’s thermos? Mix, pour, repeat. (Bring your laptop for those who want to drunk dial Goodreads!)
- Once at book club, stay at book club. You, the author, might offer to read your hosts a chapter each night or clean the bathroom. When the others have gone and the household is asleep, locate the post-it above the computer labeled “passwords.” Don’t be getting all ethical at this late date; take a lesson from both the Nigerians and the NSA. Three bumps out on their email contacts, and you, the author, will go viral, baby.
Publicity
We counsel authors to manage their expectations—by which we mean, lower yours. You, the author, shouldn’t expect coverage for merely arranging words on a page. A better bet is to become a story. We suggest:
- Gain 100+ pounds and then lose them! Extra publicity for endorsing one simple rule that lets you enjoy the food you love and take off the weight.
- Find a cure for—oh, for heaven’s sake, do we have to do everything? You, the author, can do at least identify potentially curable diseases for yourself.
- Give 5,000 of your books away. This may sound counterintuitive, but once, for a single author, it worked.
- Stop saying, “I couldn’t get arrested!” Use that password cache you collected, though robbing a bank works, too. Depending on the magnitude of your caper, you may garner cable or even national coverage. Added value: Bus stops now feature security cam footage, a.k.a. free book trailer!
Politicians know there are tradeoffs for being in the public eye, but the rewards are hard to beat. A term in the Senate or in the pen undoubtedly yields a new book, one embossed with the coveted “based on a true story.” And while it takes millions of dollars to run for office, you, the author, don’t even need a publicist to knock over a jewelry store—we are confident that you can get arrested! It takes bold moves like that to get your name out there. Or should we say in there, because you’d be lucky to get five to 10 years to capture an increasingly expanding audience. Don’t forget, if every prison library buys your book, it’s a guaranteed bestseller.
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